Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 27th through May 3rd

Current risk: YES.  Tornadoes are possible.

Current confidence level: High.  Monitor updates throughout the day and night.

Comments: Severe thunderstorms are likely today, tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night.  On and off rounds of thunderstorms.  Some of the thunderstorms will produce 70+ mph wind gusts, golf ball+ sized hail, and even some tornadoes.

The orange zone has a slightly higher risk vs the yellow zone.

Don’t get too caught up in the colors.  They may still upgrade this to a level four risk.  Right now we are at a level two and three risk.

Either way, the forecast won’t change.  The forecast is for severe weather today into tonight.  Another round tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

Monday AM Briefing

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** Severe Weather Outbreak likely this afternoon and tonight **

Another round of severe storms likely on Tuesday afternoon and night.

Don’t get caught up in the Storm Prediction Center colors. The weather doesn’t always follow our colors.

It is possible that the SPC upgrades portions of the region to a level four out of five risk. Either way, that won’t change the going forecast.

Follow the forecast and not the colors.

The forecast is that severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight. Some of the storms will produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even tornadoes.

Confidence in severe weather: High.

Certainties: Severe thunderstorms will occur today and tonight. Another round tomorrow afternoon and night.

Uncertainties: There is disagreement in the guidance as to just how unstable the atmosphere will become later today and tonight.

Morning clouds and precipitation could help keep instability lower. That would lessen the extent of the severe weather outbreak.

For now, this is one portion of the forecast that I am monitoring.

This morning.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the region.

A few storms could be severe this morning, with gusty winds and large hail. The tornado risk this morning is very low.

Some of the storms this morning have produced hail ranging from golf ball to baseball size.

This afternoon and tonight.

The atmosphere will likely recharge this afternoon.

That sets the stage for numerous severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight.

Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.

A WARNING is more serious. A warning means to seek shelter immediately. Severe weather is imminent.

The most likely timeframe for severe thunderstorms will be 5 PM to 3 AM.

Some storms could produce 70 mph wind gusts, golf ball-sized hail, and tornadoes.

If the atmosphere can recharge after the morning activity, then several strong tornadoes are possible.

Another round of severe weather is likely on Tuesday afternoon and night.

The concern on Tuesday will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

The tornado threat for Tuesday is lower than it is today. Not a zero risk.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app today and tonight.

I will be sending out alerts, updates, and warnings.

Have three or more ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

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A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for this morning.

A watch means that a few severe thunderstorms are possible.  The primary concern for this first watch is wind and hail.

A few reports are possible.  It should not be widespread (with this first watch).  More watches are likely later today and tonight.

The severe thunderstorm watch does include portions of southeast MO and southern IL.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

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This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

A severe weather outbreak is likely today and tonight.  Some of the thunderstorms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes.

Stay weather-aware today and tomorrow.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Good morning,

Let’s cut right to it.

A regional outbreak of severe weather is likely later today into tonight.  Another round tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

If the atmosphere can recharge, after this morning’s precipitation, then several strong tornadoes will be possible.

Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates and warnings over the next 48 hours.

I do expect numerous warnings to be issued for this event.

There remain some questions.  We need to see how much cloud cover we have today.  If we have ongoing precipitation and clouds, then that could reduce the risk later today and tonight.  That would be the best news.

If, however, the atmosphere can recharge, then all modes of severe weather are likely.  Wind, hail, and tornadoes.

Review your severe weather safety plans.  Be prepared to seek shelter if warnings are issued.

Remember, “watch” means to monitor.  A WARNING means to seek shelter.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
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