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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
I will be participating in this year’s Dancing With The Stars in Paducah.
I am looking for donations and sponsorships.
You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).
More information at this link. CLICK HERE
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
March 2nd through March 9th
Current risk: MONITOR.
Current confidence level: LOW confidence.
Comments: I am monitoring Thursday into the following week. We could have a few chances of severe weather. Currently, there are no strong signals through Friday for a high-end event. There are still signals for perhaps a low-end threat.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On and off lightning chances into next week. See the video for daily details.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms. MONITOR. I continue to monitor Wednesday onward. A series of systems will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the region. I can’t rule out some days having the potential for severe thunderstorm activity. At this time, there is no signal for a higher-end event through Friday. As always, monitor updates.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible this week and next week. We are in a drought, but heavy rain could cause some issues. This is especially true from this coming weekend into next week. That is when totals could increase by quite a bit.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
I will monitor Wednesday through Friday for some low-end threats. I will be monitoring Saturday into early next week, as well.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
I will monitor Wednesday through Friday for some low-end threats. I will be monitoring Saturday into early next week, as well.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- A warming trend this week. Several days in the seventies.
- Multiple systems today through early next week. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
- Rain probabilities will vary GREATLY. Please see the graphics below for each 12-hour period.
- I am monitoring the risk of a few heavier thunderstorms Wednesday into early next week. Some low-end severe weather threats are possible through Friday. There are no signals through Friday for a higher-end severe weather threat. I will monitor Saturday onward, as well.
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What is the primary weather concern?
The concern today will be rain. Widespread rain this morning. Tapering off this afternoon.
A busy ten days ahead of us with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
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These were the 5 am temperatures this morning.
A chilly start to the day. Today will be the coolest day over the coming week.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
I will keep an eye on temperatures early next week. There will be a wide range from north to south.
It will be colder north of the cold front. As a matter of fact, some areas could see a wintry mix on Sunday and Monday.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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We just went through the driest winter on record.
Here are some of the numbers from the NWS.
Double click these images to enlarge them
We do push our clocks forward this weekend.
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Today through Sunday
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through the entire week. Perhaps into next week, as well. Quite the pattern flip from the last three months.
Let’s look at rainfall totals from today through Saturday morning. Keep in mind, that additional rain is likely after Saturday morning into early next week.
This graphic also includes today’s rain totals.
This is through Saturday morning. This is quite a bit of rain. Obviously, there will be a range.
Double-click on the image to enlarge it.
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I can break that down a bit more.
The scale is on the bottom left.
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Tomorrow’s rainfall
Notice how the heavier totals shift north and west.
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Wednesday’s rainfall totals.
Again, higher totals north and west.
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Thursday morning through Saturday morning rain totals.
The area of moderate rain expands.
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Saturday morning to Monday’s morning’s rain totals.
Locally heavu rain shows up during this time period. Let’s see how this trends.
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When you add all of that up, it will be quite a bit of rain for the area.
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This is a complicated forecast from north to south. The probabilities for rain will be higher north northwest on some days vs areas south southeast.
The easier way for me to show you that is to walk you through each 12 hour time-period.
These graphics show you the % chance of rain for each 12-hour period of time.
The day-time graphics will run from 6 AM to 6 PM.
The nighttime graphics will run from 6 PM to 6 AM.
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Today 6 AM through 6 PM
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TONIGHT
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TUESDAY
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TUESDAY NIGHT
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WEDNESDAY
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WEDNESDAY NIGHT
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THURSDAY
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THURSDAY NIGHT
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FRIDAY
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FRIDAY NIGHT
So as you can see, this is a complicated forecast for each location in the region for each 12 hour time period. The numbers are going to vary.
Some locations with have high probalities of rain and some will have lower. It will vary based on the placement of the cold front and warm front (at times a stationary front).
It does appear that shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us into next week, as well.
As you are aware, we are still in drought or abnormally dry. That could help mitigate the flash flood risk. With that said, if we end up with training showers and thunderstorms then higher totals are likely and there could be some issues. That is especially true as we move into the weekend and next week. By that time, some counties will have a soaked ground.
Training is when showers and thunderstorms move over the same location. That enhances rain totals.
I will monitor the risk of a few strong thunderstorms over the next ten days, as well. At least through Friday, the severe weather risk appears limited. Perhaps some low-end risk days.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
GFS model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
EC model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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