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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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You can buy a table at this link and/or donate (you don’t need to buy a table to donate).
More information at this link. CLICK HERE
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
February 27th through March 5th
Current risk: MONITOR.
Current confidence level: LOW confidence.
Comments: I am monitoring next Tuesday onward. A series of storm systems will bring thunderstorms to the region. There will be some instability. Severe weather can’t be ruled out, but the timing and intensity are still a question. We are still a bit too far out for confidence levels to be higher. Monitor updates.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible next Tuesday onward into the week.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms. POSSIBLE. I continue to monitor next Tuesday onward. A series of systems will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the region. I can’t rule out some days having the potential for severe thunderstorm activity. Monitor updates.
..3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible next week. We are in a drought, but heavy rain could cause some issues.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees? No.
6. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees? No.
7. Is accumulating snow (one inch or more of snow) or ice in the forecast? NO. A light wintry mix is possible Sunday night and Monday morning over our northern counties.
Impacts are not anticipated.
The trend over the past 24 hours has been a bit warmer and a bit less precipitation.
As always, watch bridges and elevated surfaces. They are usually colder.
This is the area that I am monitoring for a wintry mix on Sunday into Monday. The shaded zone over our northern counties.
Again, I am not concerned about this.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
I will monitor Monday night onward for a chance of thunderstorms.
I can’t rule out periods of severe weather, but confidence in the timing and intensity remains low. Monitor updates.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- Much warmer today and tomorrow. Patchy dense fog this morning.
- Multiple systems over the next few weeks. A wetter pattern is likely.
- A wintry mix is possible Sunday into Monday over our northern counties. Impacts are not anticipated.
- I am monitoring the risk of thunderstorms next week. I can’t rule out periods of heavy rain and severe weather. Monitor updates.
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What is the primary weather concern?
No significant weather concerns through Saturday afternoon.
There are areas of dense fog this morning. Use care.
Mild on Friday and Saturday. Highs in the sixties! Spring-like conditions.
Use care if burning leaves or brush today. The wildfire index is elevated.
Double-click this graphic to enlarge it.
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These were the 5 am temperatures this morning.
A cool start to the morning. It will be mild this afternoon.
Patchy dense fog.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
I will keep an eye on temperatures early next week. There will be a wide range from north to south.
It will be colder north of the cold front. As a matter of fact, some areas could see a wintry mix on Sunday and Monday.
See the video or graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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Today and tomorrow will be nice. Some patchy fog this morning.
Warmer this afternoon and tomorrow.
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Monday morning lows. Again, it will be colder north.
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Sunday into Friday
Unsettled weather next week. There will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Clouds will thicken on Sunday. That will be ahead of our next series of systems.
The guidance is quite bullish on multiple systems tracking across our region from Sunday into the following two weeks.
Perhaps we will put a dent in our drought. That appears likely, at this point. Multiple inches of rain are possible over the next two weeks.
Rain showers will develop on Sunday and continue into the week.
Seven-day rain totals are starting out bullish.
Let’s see how this trends.
Double-click on these images to enlarge them.
This is through next Friday morning. This is quite a bit of rain. Obviously, there would be a range.
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We could have a few showers as early as late Saturday night. More likely, we will have showers from Sunday onward.
Again, as mentioned above, our northern counties may be cold enough for a non-impactful wintry mix from Sunday into Monday, as well.
It will be so warm today and tomorrow that significant impacts are unlikely even if a wintry mix falls. I will monitor it, but for now, I am not concerned.
Guidance shows multiple fronts next week. It will be warm enough that thunderstorms will enter the forecast.
It is too early to know if severe thunderstorms will be a concern. That is something that I am monitoring. There are signs that some severe weather risk will develop next week.
It is just a bit too early to zero in on which time period will be of concern (perhaps multiple time periods).
Let’s look at the rain probabilities. What is the % chance of rain for each 12-hour period of time?
Of course, the farther out in time you go, the higher the chance that these numbers will need to be adjusted.
I am sure there will be times when precipitation chances exceed 80%.
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Saturday night
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Sunday
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Sunday night
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Monday
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Monday night
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Tuesday
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Tuesday night
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Wednesday
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Wednesday night
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Thursday
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Monitor updates over the coming days.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
GFS model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Pink/red would be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
EC model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
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Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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