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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. A chance of lightning late Friday night into Saturday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Some morning clouds. A sprinkle possible over western Kentucky and Tennessee. Becoming sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:16 PM
Moonset: 12:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, November 3, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 75° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 75° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 75° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 75° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:22 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:46 PM
Moonset: 2:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, November 4, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds. Mild and windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong wind gusts
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:23 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Late night showers and thunderstorms pushing in from the west. Mild and windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: None early. Increasing coverage after 3 AM. Becoming numerous.
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 3 AM.(late)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:13 PM
Moonset: 3:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, November 5, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Widespread rain. A thunderstorm possible. Diminishing from west to east as the day wears on. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. Highest coverage will be the first half of the day. Diminishing coverage from west to east.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 25 mph becoming southwest. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars and updates.
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 7:24 AM
Sunset: 5:53 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:39 PM
Moonset: 4:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday, November 6, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of light rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy early. A chance of a shower. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:04 PM
Moonset: 4:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday, November 7, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:31 PM
Moonset: 5:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through November 15th: Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Some morning clouds. Clearing.
- Warming trend continues.
- Windy conditions will develop ahead of our next system.
- Widespread rain Friday night (late) into Saturday.
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Weather advice:
Windy conditions Thursday into the weekend. Use care if burning brush Thursday and Friday.
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Current Weather Discussion
A look back at October.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
We are waking up to clouds. A couple of sprinkles have even been reported over Kentucky and Tennessee.
The clouds will clear over the coming hours.
You can see those clouds on the early morning satellite imagery.
Don’t forget, you can double click on images to enlarge them.
Clouds will depart off to our east and that will deliver us sunshine this afternoon (for those who don’t already have sunshine).
It will be warm today. Again!
Warm conditions through Friday.
The only weather story through Friday afternoon will be the wind.
Expect winds to increase ahead of a deepening area of low pressure Thursday into the weekend.
Notice the black lines? Those are isobars. Equal lines of pressure. Tighter isobars equal stronger wind gusts.
Data indicates widespread 15 to 25 mph wind gusts Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Occasional gusts above 35 mph. Anyone with boating plans should be aware of this.
I am sure there will be some boaters on area lakes and rivers. With temperatures in the 70s! Even 80 degrees.
Friday wind gusts.
Friday night/Saturday morning
Saturday afternoon
Those strong southerly winds will deliver moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
As a matter of fact, the atmosphere will be quite saturated Friday night (late) into Saturday.
Widespread showers will push into the region from west to east. That will occur late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Notice that I increased rain chances Friday night into Saturday. I lowered rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. It took me a while to fine tune that portion of the forecast, but confidence is now much higher than it was 24 to 48 hours ago.
Rain totals of 0.4 to 0.8″ will be the general rule. Highest totals west and lowest totals east.
Thankfully, there just isn’t enough CAPAE for a widespread severe weather event.
CAPE is energy that thunderstorms tap into. Typically, during the autumn and winter months we have low CAPE and high wind shear events.
Wind shear will certainly be high Friday night into Saturday. Without CAPE, however, you can’t have a severe weather outbreak.
As always, monitor updates.
I could see an argument made for the Storm Prediction Center placing portions of Missouri in a marginal risk late Friday night. That would be as the line of storms approaches from the west.
I pulled up the NAM model’s CAPE forecast. Just a hint of CAPE over Missouri late Friday night/early Saturday morning.
With time, however, the line will weaken.
I lowered rain chances Saturday night into early next week.
I can’t completely rule out some stray showers Saturday night and Sunday.
Temperatures will cool behind the cold front Saturday night into early next week. Nothing extreme, yet.
Updated December forecast. It trends slightly cooler and somewhat drier.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
Temperature
Precipitation
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers November 2nd through November 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers November 9th through November 15th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 39 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 15th through November 28th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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