Wednesday, May 24, 2023: Nice weather forecast continues.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset is also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated. An isolated thunderstorm today. I will watch next Monday afternoon.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:38 AM
Moonset: 12:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Thursday, May 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: East 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:39 AM
Moonset: 12:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday, May 26, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:38 AM
Moonset: 1:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Saturday, May 27, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 1:49 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

Sunday, May 28, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:38 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:37 PM
Moonset: 2:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Monday, May 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:08 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:32 PM
Moonset: 2:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights

1. Great forecast numbers if you like sunshine.
2. Cooler and less humid Thursday into the weekend.
3. I will continue to monitor an upper level low this weekend into early next week.

Weather advice:

As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Forecast Discussion

Nice weather! Isolated showers and thunderstorms today.

Our weather is moving in from the north northeast.

That is opposite of the way our weather usually arrives.

We call this a backdoor cold front. It will move south southwest and deliver cooler and less humid air into the region tonight and tomorrow.

Here is the front. The arrows show the direction it is moving.

There were a few showers and thunderstorms in the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Not much, but a few locations received rain.

We continue to be in a feast or famine rainfall situation. Some of us need rain (badly) and others have had too much.

There will be a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms today.

The yellow is spreading on this map. Yellow represents several inches below average with rainfall totals.

Here is the precipitation anomaly from the past 30 days.

Brown represents well below average rainfall.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

From the past 60 days.

An ABSOLUTE STUNNING forecast over the coming days. Lower dew points arrive today. Lower temperatures tonight into the weekend.

Widespread 70s will be common over the coming days. An unusually dry air-mass will mean low humidity and dew points. That means it will feel nice outside.

Amazing evenings, as well.

You can see the brown on this moisture map. This is Friday. Saturday into Monday appear the same. An unusually dry air-mass for May.

The only question in the forecast is cloud cover. The EC and GFS models bring clouds back into the region for the holiday weekend. There is quite a bit of discussion among meteorologists about whether to go with clouds or sunshine.

This is the EC model cloud cover for Sunday afternoon. Blue represents clouds. The GFS model shows something similar.

Hopefully, we won’t have a lot of clouds. If we do have clouds, then you can shave a few degrees off the expected high temperatures.

I went with partly cloudy. Keep in mind, that an upper level low is situated to our south southeast. That will bring clouds into the region is it shifts a tad farther to the north northwest.

The good news is that we are not expecting showers or thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Perhaps a small chance of an afternoon thunderstorm Monday. Mainly over southeast Missouri. I will monitor it.

Otherwise, an unusually quiet weather pattern for late May.

I continue to monitor an upper level low Sunday into Tuesday. This low could spread some clouds and moisture back into our region. For now, however, I have left the forecast dry. Monitor updates.

NOAA has released the July through September precipitation outlook. They have out region in above average precipitation.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the SPC WRF Model.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the NAM 3K Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Outlined area on some of these maps represents the major corn-belt zone.

Blue and purple represent below average temperatures. Yellow to red is above average temperatures.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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