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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Beau’s Two Minute Weather Video Update
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
This shows you the forecast high. The records. The average and then the departure (how many degrees above or below average will temperatures be).
The graphic shows you what our average daily rainfall is for the day. That is not what is expected (that is the average from past years).
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Friday into Friday night. Another chance of lightning next Monday into Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Severe thunderstorms with hail, high wind, and tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon and night. There remain questions on instability. Overall confidence in severe weather remains low.
Another chance of intense thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday night of next week. Perhaps Wednesday, as well.
There are questions about the timing of the Monday through Wednesday cold front. If it speeds up then the severe threat would mainly be Monday and Tuesday.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Locally heavy rain is likely Friday and Friday night. This system is transient and likely won’t produce as much rain as recent events. With that said, any heavy rain or storms could cause brief flash flooding issues. I will monitor next weeks storm system, as well.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 7:15 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:05 PM
Moonset: 2:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, March 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Thickening clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:02 PM
Moonset: 3:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, March 31, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly the first half of the night
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming west northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the chance of a few severe thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:03 PM
Moonset: 4:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Patchy frost again tonight.
- A few intense storms possible Friday afternoon and night. Locally heavy downpours.
- Warming trend into next week. Stormy pattern.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
We are waking up to cold temperatures and patchy frost.
Here were the 6 am temperatures around the region. Brrr.
A calm weather day is on tap for the region.
It will be chilly again tonight. Not quite as cold as this morning, but still chilly. Patchy frost is again possible in the region.
Thursday will be calm and mild. Spring like weather! We have earned that.
A larger storm system takes shape Thursday night into Friday night.
Not much has changed about my thinking on this system from 24 hours ago. Confidence in the the threat of severe weather remains lower than average for a system in this time-range.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a substantial risk zone across our region.
A few items of interest.
The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS isn’t exactly on board with the idea of an outbreak of severe weather. They are being more cautious about the idea.
Myself and several other meteorologists have noted that there are some missing or disjointed factors involved with the setup.
Severe weather is fickle. A lot can “go wrong” with the forecast.
Could there be a significant severe weather event? Yes, that is one possibility of several.
There are questions about how amplified the system will or won’t be. The EC model is a bit more concerning on its severe weather parameters vs the GFS model.
EC model has more/higher dew points over a larger area. Meanwhile, the GFS model isn’t as bullish on the dew point return and is not as amplified with the system.
That is like night and day when forecast severe thunderstorms.
My current forecast is for widespread showers to develop Thursday night (esp late). Widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday into the first half of Friday night.
Locally heavy downpours in thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be intense Friday afternoon and night. Severe weather can’t be ruled out. The primary concern would be damaging wind. There could be a tornado threat but that will need to be determined closer to the event.
I will know more tomorrow.
The bottom line is that we need to monitor Friday’s forecast. I can’t rule out severe weather. Thus, we have several days to monitor trends in the guidance packages.
Drier conditions will arrive Saturday and Sunday.
A couple of showers may remain in the region Saturday. Especially over Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Closer to the area of low pressure.
Another storm system will take shape next week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of those thunderstorms could be intense.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through March 31st: I am closely monitoring a storm system that is forecast to arrive Friday. A cold front will move across the region. This front will have strong wind shear and moisture to work with. Severe thunderstorms are possible/likely in the region. This event is still several days away, but data does indicate the potential of damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado. Monitor updates.
The primary time-frame of concern will be Friday afternoon and evening.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
This animation is the NAM Model.
This animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This is next weeks system.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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