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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
This shows you the forecast high. The records. The average and then the departure (how many degrees above or below average will temperatures be).
The graphic shows you what our average daily rainfall is for the day. That is not what is expected (that is the average from past years).
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Thursday into Friday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. I am watching Thursday into Friday. Some storms could become severe with hail, high wind, and even a tornado. Peak time from of concern will be Friday. I will watch Thursday, as well.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain will occur Thursday into Friday. Monitor updates. Flooding will be possible. A widespread one to three inches of rain with pockets of three to five.
The Paducah, Kentucky, NWS issued this statement concerning the heavy rain event.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
232 AM CDT WED MAR 22 2023
..HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
AFTER A MID WEEK PAUSE, LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP AGAIN AS WE
APPROACH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAKE ITS MOVE TOWARD US THURSDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FORECAST AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BROADLY RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS A BULK OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST, NAMELY EAST OF THE LAKES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, IF REALIZED, WILL LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT LOCALLY ENHANCE AMOUNTS
OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME RAIN SOAKED TERRAIN. WPC HAS UPGRADED NEARLY
THE ENTIRE REGION TO A MODERATE RISK FOR DEVELOPING FLOODING ISSUES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO UPDATES AND POTENTIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS THIS
EVENT NEARS IN TIME, AND PREPARE WITH YOUR FLOOD SAFETY PLAN
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly during the morning and early afternoon
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of isolated showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:35 AM
Moonset: 8:28 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, March 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be greater over our northern counties vs southern counties. The bulk of the rain will begin to shift southward Thursday night.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 75°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:03 AM
Moonset: 9:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, March 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms early. Decreasing coverage overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly the first half of the night. Decreasing coverage.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:32 AM
Moonset: 10:48 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, March 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:04 AM
Moonset: 11:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, March 26, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Most likely dry. I have gone back and forth on Sunday’s rain chances.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:40 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, March 27, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A shower will be possible, but many areas should remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: During the morning hours
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. High.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 7:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Clearing. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 35° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:23 AM
Moonset: 12:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through March 28th: Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Friday night. I will keep an eye on Thursday, as well.
The concern will be a few reports of damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado. This is a conditional risk. Some of the data shows the higher instability remaining to our south. Let’s monitor updates moving forward. I will send out app messages if necessary.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Wet weather to continue.
- Locally heavy rain and flooding.
- Severe weather threat.
- Weekend weather.
Weather advice:
As we prepare for spring, let’s make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
The forecast is on track.
A storm system will bring copious amounts of moisture to the region beginning Thursday and lingering into Friday night.
A widespread one to two inches of rain will occur through Friday night. Bands of two to four inches likely. I can’t rule out some five inch totals over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. That will depend on the exact placement of the frontal boundary.
The heaviest rain Thursday may be over our northern counties. It will then shift southward Thursday night into Friday night.
Today and tonight
We are in-between systems. A few light showers will dot radar today and perhaps tonight. For the most part, however, it will be dry.
Temperatures will be a bit milder today than yesterday. Tonight, as well. Lows tonight will remain in the 50s and lower 60s. Mild for this time of the year.
Thursday into Friday night.
** Heavy rain likely. Some intense storms possible. **
The WPC has placed us in a marginal and slight risk of flash flooding Thursday and Thursday night. We have been upgraded to a moderate risk Friday.
That simply means that there may be enough rain to cause flash flooding. Commonly flooded areas may have concerns.
Avoid flooded roadways if flash flooding does develop.
The bands of heavy rain will first begin over our northern counties Thursday morning and afternoon. With time, that will shift southward.
Don’t be surprised of a chunk of Thursday is dry over much of the area.
Either way, rain showers and thunderstorms will rapidly develop along a frontal boundary Thursday.
Thursday night, the rain will shift southward.
Our active weather pattern will continue into Friday.
An area of low pressure will develop to our west and track north and west of our region. This places us in what we call the warm sector. The sector of the system will all rain occurs and some thunderstorms.
The cold sector is where the snow is located.
Data shows copious amounts of moisture with this event. At atmospheric river of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean.
You can see that here on these two maps. That orange and red zone shows a LOT of moisture headed our way.
You can also see the moisture feed on this graphic.
PWAT values. Moisture.
Let’s look at the probability of one inch, two inch, and four inches of rain.
Two or more inches. I think this should actually have higher values than shown.
Four or more inches. I think this should actually have higher values than shown.
Dew points will creep upward Thursday and Friday. When thinking about severe weather, I like to see dew points in the sixties.
Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Dew point is what makes it feel humid outside. Higher dew points equal muggier air.
Both days will have dew points into the sixties. Perhaps even some mid to upper sixties. That is a concern when it comes to heavy rain and perhaps severe thunderstorms. Instability, however, is in question. Without the CAPE, there won’t be much of a severe weather risk.
CAPE does show up, but will it be enough CAPE to support severe thunderstorms?
Thursday CAPE
Friday afternoon CAPE
As mentioned above, this system will have copious amounts of moisture to work with. PWAT values will be quite high.
PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmospheric column.
You can see that stream of Gulf of Mexico moisture on the PWAT animation. Those purple colors are very high PWAT values for this time of the year.
That spells heavy rain.
Rain totals are forecast to rain from one to three inches area-wide by Friday night.
WPC has increased their totals from 24 hours ago.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.
Some models
The NAM model. Rain totals this week.
The GFS model. Rain totals for the week.
Saturday and Sunday
The bulk of that system will pull away from the region Friday night. That leaves us with a few showers over the weekend as yet another system pulls eastward across our region.
For now, I kept rain chances in the 0 to 20% range.
The latest WPC 6 to 10 day & 8 to 14 day outlooks have been posted. See the BAMwx ones farther down the blog.
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the 50s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the 30s.
Green is above average precipitation.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers March 22, 2023 through March 28, 2023
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 29th through April 5th
Click on the image to expand
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 4th through April 17th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
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March Temperature and precipitation Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
April Temperature and precipitation Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
May Temperature and precipitation Outlook
Double click images to enlarge them.
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Seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook
March through May
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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