Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

First, a flood watch is in effect today.  Portions of the region.  Mainly in the green zone (bottom of this graphic).

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The NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast.

The Hrrr model rainfall forecast

The NAM model rainfall forecast

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You get the general idea.  Locally heavy rain today and tonight.

I have started a severe weather blog post.  This blog post will cover tomorrow’s event.  Details at this link. CLICK HERE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER BLOG UPDATE 

An active weather pattern continues across the region.

We just finished a series of rain events and we have another one on the way.

Some severe thunderstorms are possible today.  A significant outbreak of severe weather is likely to our south.

As always, most severe weather events are conditional.  What does conditional mean?  Conditional means that everything has to come together just right in order for the forecast to verify.

We are going to have a lot of clouds in the region today.  Perhaps mostly cloudy the entire day.  Also, widespread showers and thunderstorms are already moving in from the south and west.

These showers and thunderstorms will help keep instability lower.  That is good news.  The bad news is that wind fields will rapidly increase today.  That will couple with increasing dew points/moisture.  The end result will be some torrential downpours, gusty wind, lightning, and hail.

There may be enough instability for damaging wind and even a tornado.  Let’s pay attention to any warnings today.  Storms will move fast.  There may not be much in the way of warning.

I will be sending out warning bulletins via the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app.  Log into your app.  Make sure it is on and working.  Do that now.

A warm front will push northward from the Gulf of Mexico today.

There will be some showers and thunderstorms well north of the warm front.   See the radars.

A widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″ of rain is anticipated with pockets of 2″ to 4″ possible.  Training thunderstorms, storms that move over the same area, can produce very heavy rain totals.  Keep that in mind.

See the future-cast radars further down in the blog.

The bigger concern will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  It is possible this severe weather event continues well into the night.

As always, you should be prepared to deal with severe weather.

Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A WARNING means seek shelter.  A WARNING is worse.  A warning means that severe weather is occurring or about to occur at your location.  See shelter.

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Let me show you a series of maps.  I will explain all of them.

When considering a severe weather forecast, we look at many factors.  These factors have to come together in order to produce severe thunderstorms.  Just one of them is not enough.

One item forecasters look for are high dew points.

Dew point is a measure of moisture.  Once we reach the 58 degree mark, we start to think about severe thunderstorms.

Dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside.

Dew points in the 60s represent more than enough moisture for severe thunderstorms.  Of course, there are other ingredients, as well.

Let me show you the high-resolution Hrrr model guidance.  Dew point forecast animation.  This shows you Tuesday into Wednesday night.

You can see the tongue of 60+ dew points attempting to nudge into our region.  You can see the blues area mostly to our south.

Those blue colors are the higher dew points.

For widespread severe weather, you would want to see those blues further north.  Thus, I continue to monitor this.  There are uncertainties on how far north to push the higher severe weather probabilities.

See how the 60+ degree dew points (blue colors) attempt to push northward into our region?  With time, they diminish.

This is sufficient for severe weather concerns.  Notice the 60s are widespread to our south.  That is where the higher risk is located.

The risk will diminish as you travel north in our region.  Keep that in mind.

The risk is higher over far southeast Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Tennessee, and far western Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the region for a risk of severe weather Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Again, the risk is higher to our south, but we are still included in the risk zone.  Higher probabilities across eastern Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama.

There is a high risk over portions of the Gulf of Mexico.

You can see that here.  The light green zone is where sub-severe storms are possible.  The dark green is a level one risk.  The yellow is a level two risk.  The orange is a level three risk.  The red is the level four risk zone.  The pink is the level five risk zone.

Five is the highest risk that the Storm Prediction Zone has.

REMEMBER:  Don’t focus too much on the colors or their exact placement.  The Harrisburg, Illinois, tornado was in a slight risk and killed eight people.  It only takes one tornado to cause problems.  The SPC colors are for guidance only.  Meaning, we use them to see where severe weather might be widespread vs scattered.

Again, it only takes one tornado to cause problems.  The weather does not always follow our colors.

The pink zone is the high risk.  The red zone is the moderate risk.  The SPC believes that a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms will be possible (IF all the ingredients do come together).

You can see that our entire region is included in the severe weather risk zone.  Southern counties have the highest risk.

The SPC will update this more than once over the coming 24 hours.  Monitor updates.  Let’s see if they shift it around a bit.

Either way, the forecast will remain the same.  There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

1.  The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
2.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
3.  The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

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Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No rain in the forecast

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

An active weather pattern continues across the region.

We just finished a series of rain events and we have another one on the way.

Unfortunately, this one is likely going to produce severe thunderstorms.  As always, most severe weather events are conditional.  What does conditional mean?  Conditional means that everything has to come together just right in order for the forecast to verify.

If we have more clouds and rain then that will keep instability down.  If instability is lower then the severe weather risk is lower.  This is not unusual.  This is part of the forecast that will need to be monitored.

We definitely have a risk of severe weather.  Keep in mind, however, that all the ingredients need to come together to actually produce severe thunderstorms.

Concerns are rising for a severe weather risk late tonight into Wednesday night.

A warm front will push northward from the Gulf of Mexico late tonight into Wednesday.

There will be some showers and thunderstorms well north of the warm front.    This will occur tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Some of these thunderstorms could produce frequent lightning, gusty wind, and hail.

See the future-cast radars further down in the blog.  You can see how the storms move out of Arkansas and Tennessee and eventually spread into the rest of our region.

The bulk of tonight’s activity will be after midnight.  Some rumblers may wake you tomorrow morning.

The bigger concern will arrive Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  It is possible this severe weather event continues well into the night.

As always, you should be prepared to deal with severe weather.  Make sure your Beau Dodson Weather app is on.  Check it today.  Make sure you have not logged out on accident.

I will be sending out messages today and tomorrow.  I plan on starting a severe weather blog later today.  I will send that out via the app, as well.

Remember, a watch means to monitor updates.  A WARNING means seek shelter.  A WARNING is worse.  A warning means that severe weather is occurring or about to occur at your location.  See shelter.

.

Let me show you a series of maps.  I will explain all of them.

When considering a severe weather forecast, we look at many factors.  These factors have to come together in order to produce severe thunderstorms.  Just one of them is not enough.

One item forecasters look for are high dew points.

Dew point is a measure of moisture.  Once we reach the 58 degree mark, we start to think about severe thunderstorms.

Dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside.

Dew points in the 60s represent more than enough moisture for severe thunderstorms.  Of course, there are other ingredients, as well.

NAM model guidance.  Dew point forecast animation.  This shows you Tuesday into Wednesday night.

You can see the tongue of 60+ dew points attempting to nudge into our region.  You can see the blues area mostly to our south.

Those blue colors are the higher dew points.

For widespread severe weather, you would want to see those blues further north.  Thus, I continue to monitor this.  There are uncertainties on how far north to push the higher severe weather probabilities.

Here is the NAM 3K model forecast for dew points.  See how the 60+ degree dew points (blue colors) attempt to push northward into our region?  With time, they diminish.

This is sufficient for severe weather concerns (esp early on in the event).

Here is the Hrrr model guidance.  Another high-resolution model.   It also pushes higher dew points into our region.

Notice how the higher dew points are mainly across far southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

With that said, the Hrrr model pushes those 60+ dew points a tad further north than some other models.  This is something I will be closely monitoring over the next 24 to 36 hours.

The further those higher dew points (blue color) push northward, the greater the risk of severe thunderstorms.

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The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the region for a risk of severe weather Wednesday/Wednesday night.

The risk is higher to our south, but we are still included in the risk zone.  Higher probabilities across eastern Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama.

You can see that here.  The light green zone is where sub-severe storms are possible.  The dark green is a level one risk.  The yellow is a level two risk.  The orange is a level three risk.  The red is the highest risk zone.  That is a level four out of five.  Five is the highest risk that the Storm Prediction Zone has.

The red zone is the moderate risk.  The SPC believes that a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms will be possible (IF all the ingredients do come together).  There is a chance that ongoing showers and thunderstorms, during the day on Wednesday, keeps instability somewhat lower.  If that happens, then the risk will be a tad lower.

You can see that our entire region is included in the severe weather risk zone.  Southern counties have the highest risk.

The SPC will update this more than once over the coming 24 hours.  Monitor updates.  Let’s see if they shift it around a bit.

Either way, the forecast will remain the same.  There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms Wednesday/Wednesday night.