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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long-range video.
48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. There is a chance of lightning Wednesday night into Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Some storms could be intense Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The primary concern will be quarter size hail. A small risk of high winds. There is a low level risk of damaging wind. The tornado risk is low, but perhaps not zero.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Patchy morning fog. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing chances late at night. Windy, at times. Some storms could produce hail and gusty wind.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Increasing chances overnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph becoming south 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Hail and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:27 PM
Moonset: 10:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, January 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Decreasing coverage through the day. Turning colder with falling temperatures. Windy. Some of the morning storms could produce hail. A severe thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day. Decreasing coverage.
Timing of the precipitation: Decreasing coverage west to east during the morning.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming west northwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could produce hail early in the day. A couple of storms could produce high wind. I will monitor the tornado risk. It does appear small, but perhaps not zero.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:58 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow flurries. Colder.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:25 PM
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, January 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. More clouds over the eastern half of the region vs the western half. A chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Decreasing clouds overnight. Patchy fog.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 25°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:26 PM
Moonset: 10:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, January 14, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Becoming partly cloudy.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 11:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Sunday, January 15, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Milder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:01 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 02%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:27 PM
Moonset: 11:41 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 12th: A few of the thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow could produce hail and damaging wind gusts. The highest threat is hail. There is a low risk of a short-lived tornado, as well.
The thunderstorms may remain elevated. If so, then hail is the only concern.
Officially, the SPC has outlined our region for a risk tonight and tomorrow. Monitor updates.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild today.
- Patchy fog and drizzle this morning.
- Rain chances ramp up Wednesday night into Thursday. A few thunderstorms.
- A few of the thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow could produce hail. I will monitor the risk of damaging wind and tornadoes.
Weather advice:
Hail is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Monitor updates.
There is a small chance of damaging wind and short-lived tornadoes early tomorrow morning. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Current Weather Discussion
Good day, everyone.
We do have some fog and drizzle in the region. That should mix out over the coming hours.
That will leave us with a mild day. Well above average temperatures. Normal highs are around 40 degrees. We will be well above that number today. Well above average temperatures tonight, as well.
Thickening clouds tonight and this evening.
Check out the GFS model temperature anomaly animation map.
This graphic shows you the coming two weeks. All those red colors represent above average anomalies.
Double click the graphic to enlarge it.
Of course, we always pay the price for mild weather during the winter months. This time will be no different.
An area of low pressure will develop over Kansas and Oklahoma today. This low will move into our region tonight and tomorrow.
You can see the low on this map tomorrow morning.
Warm moist air will stream northward today and tonight.
You can see the dew point animation. Watch the surge of higher dew points into our region tonight and tomorrow morning.
Typically, when forecasting severe weather, I look for dew points of 58 degrees and above.
This will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms. A few of the thunderstorms could produce hail and strong gusty winds. I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings.
The primary concern is hail. I can’t rule out some surface-based storms. If those do develop then damaging wind could occur in a few spots and even a short-lived tornado.
Overall, the greatest concern will be hail.
Lapse rates will be high tonight.
I use lapse rates to forecast hail.
This is the 12 AM lapse rate map.
Want to learn more about lapse rates? Click here.
This is the 6 AM lapse rate map.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app tonight and tomorrow. The timeframe will be 11 PM through 10 AM.
The hail risk will be highest between 11 PM and 3 AM. Then, we will need to monitor the risk for all severe weather types early tomorrow morning.
A cold front will push across the region tomorrow. Colder air will push in behind the front.
There will be lingering clouds and perhaps even snow flurries Thursday night into Friday. I don’t expect any accumulation.
Dry conditions Friday night through Sunday afternoon.
Another storm system will push into the region Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will peak Monday. The rain will exit Monday night.
Rain totals are going to vary based on thunderstorm development. Generally, rain totals will be 0.25″ to 0.50″. Then, where thunderstorms cocur you can double those numbers. That would be tonight and tomorrow.
Additional rain is likely Sunday night into Monday evening.
The GFS shows a parade of storm systems.
Next Monday
Thursday, January 19th
January 26th
The bottom line is that we will have above average temperatures (most of the time) over the next two weeks.
An active storm track is likely, as well.
What about snow and winter weather? We may have to wait until February.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers January 11th through January 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 18th through January 24th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 24th through February 8th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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