Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Tuesday, September 20, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.


48-hour forecast



.


.

Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  A slight chance Wednesday night.  A chance Saturday night into Sunday night.  Focused on Saturday night and Sunday during the day.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Not at this time.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Yes.  Today and tomorrow.  Heat index values will range from 98 to 105 degrees.

5.  Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast?   No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

.

.

Tuesday, September 20, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot.  Humid.  Heat index values above 100 degrees.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 96° to 98°  /  SE MO 96° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° /  South IL 96° to 98°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 94° to 98°  /  West KY 96° to 98° /  NW TN 96° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 105°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset:  6:55 AM
.

Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°  /  SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° /  South IL 66° to 70°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 70°  /  West KY 66° to 70° /  NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: S 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:18 AM
Moonset:  4:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Wednesday, September 21, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Hot. Humid. Heat index values 98 to 104
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98°  /  SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° /  South IL 94° to 98°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 94° to 98°  /  West KY 94° to 98° /  NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset:  6:53 AM
.

Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°  /  SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 62°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 62°  /  West KY 60° to 62° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Becoming north northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:13 AM
Moonset:  5:10 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Thursday, September 22, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Some morning clouds.  A chance of an isolated morning shower.  Mostly sunny.  Much cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 10%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 10% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset:  6:52 AM
.

Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54°  /  SE MO 48° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° /  South IL 48° to 52°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 50° to 52°  /  West KY 50° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:13 AM
Moonset:  5:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Friday, September 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Northeast to east 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset:  6:51 AM
.

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54°  /  SE MO 50° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 52° /  South IL 50° to 54°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 50° to 54°  /  West KY 52° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the:  East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:16 AM
Moonset:  6:10 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Saturday, September 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86°  /  SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° /  South IL 82° to 85°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 82° to 85°  /  West KY 82° to 84° /  NW TN 82° to 85°
Winds will be from the: Becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset:  6:49 AM
.

Saturday night Forecast:  Becoming partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL  ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62°  /  SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 66° /  South IL 58° to 60°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 60°  /  West KY 58° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars (see bottom of the page)
Moonrise: 5:17 AM
Moonset:  6:35 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

.

Sunday, September 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium  confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.   A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°  /  SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° /  South IL 80° to 82°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82°  /  West KY 82° to 84° /  NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the:  Southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset:  6:48 AM
.

Sunday  night Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /  the rest of South IL  ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Mainly the first half of the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56°  /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 52° to 54°  /  West KY 53° to 56° /  NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset:  7:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

.

Monday, September 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset:  6:46 AM
.

Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54°  /  SE MO 48° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 48° /  South IL 48° to 52°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 50° to 52°  /  West KY 50° to 54° /  NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
Moonset:  7:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

 

.

..

** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.


Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

 



.

Today through September 30th:   Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

.

.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

.

.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.


.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

.

72-hour precipitation outlook.
.

.



Weather Discussion

    1.  Hot today and tomorrow.  Heat index values of around 100 degrees.
    2.  Strong cold front arrives Wednesday night/Thursday.  Cooler.
    3.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening/night into Thursday morning (low chances).
    4.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the weekend.  Another cold front.
    5.  Hickman County severe weather presentation.  September 29th.  Come visit with me.

.

Weather advice:

Stay cool in the coming heat wave!

.

Current Weather Discussion

Hot hot hot.  A late summer short-lived heat wave is underway.

It was hot yesterday with widespread 90s.  Heat index values were around 100 degrees.

Expect the same today and tomorrow.  Use care if you must work outside.

The great news is that a strong cold front will push into the region Wednesday evening/night.  This front will bring increasing clouds with a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms.  No severe weather.

A couple of showers could linger into Thursday morning.  Widely scattered (if they occur).  Most areas will remain dry Wednesday night and Thursday.

Don’t get too excited about rain chances with this front.

The big story will be a push of cooler air.  Some of the coolest readings of the season, thus far.

Thursday’s highs will top out in the 70s across the region.  Same for Friday.

Expect mid to upper 40s over the northern half of the region by Friday morning.  Elsewhere, you can expect upper 40s to lower 50s.

Pleasant air.  Less humid air.  It will feel nice.  Nice camping weather.

Friday night will be pleasant, as well.  Enjoy it!

Saturday will be warmer, but still nice.  Highs in the 80s.  Dry conditions.

Another cold front will push into the region Saturday night into Sunday night.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  Perhaps becoming numerous Sunday.

Rain totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″ are anticipated.  Locally higher in thunderstorms.  We will just have to wait and see how widespread this rain event will be.  I suspect some areas will miss out.  I will monitor trends.

Cooler air arrives Sunday night into Monday.

Wow, two cold fronts in less than five days!

Some of you are asking about the end of the month vacations to the Gulf of Mexico/Florida.

I am watching a possible tropical system, but it is way way way too soon to know if this will verify.  Models do not handle tropical systems very well.

It is simply something to monitor.

You can see that here on the GFS.  September 29th.

Drought conditions continue to worsen.  That may continue into October.  There are some signs that October will deliver below average precipitation, as well.

The new October outlook was just posted.

Here it is

The temperature outlook.

The precipitation outlook.

Confidence in the October outlook is average.

We need the rain.  Drought has been redeveloping in the region.  We did see this subside (for most of the area) a few weeks ago.  Only to return in September.

You can monitor drought conditions here.  Click here.

Here are the latest drought monitor maps.  Double click the image to enlarge it.

and

 

Join us for Surviving the Storm. Thursday, September 29 at 6:00 PM at the Hickman County Extension Office.

We will review the December 2021 Tornado, lessons learned, and disaster preparedness tips.

Justin Jackson, Hickman Office of Emergency Management Director, will overview the Hickman County tornado damage and response.

Door Prizes (including five Midland 120 NOAA Weather Radios) and Light Refreshments are provided.

This free event is sponsored by the Hickman County Office of Emergency Management and Hickman County Extension.

https://www.facebook.com/events/962061578018048/?ref=newsfeed

As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November.  Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.

Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone.  Make sure your subscription is up to date.

You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com 



.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.

This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

.

.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

.

This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

.

.

 

Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM). 

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

.

.

Early AM Energy/Agriculture Report. 

This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am

The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.

Double click this image to make it larger.

 


.

.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers September 20th through September 26th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
.
This outlook covers September 27th through October 3rd

Click on the image to expand it

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

.
.
THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  90 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers October 4th through October 17th


.

Precipitation outlook

 

Monthly Outlooks

Autumn OUTLOOK

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

September Temperature Outlook

 

.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

October Temperature Outlook

Precipitation

.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

November Temperature Outlook

November Precipitation Outlook

.

E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

December Temperature Outlook

December Precipitation Outlook

.

.

The Winter Outlook has been posted.  Another La Nina winter.  As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.

La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal.  El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.

Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North

.

No two winters are alike.  No two La Nina’s are alike.

The last two winters have been La Nina winters.  Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.

As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.  That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.

I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice.  Those are common during the La Nina winter years.

We will have to monitor the NAO.  If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.

What is the NAO?  Click here for more information.

Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.

What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events.  You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February.  Or, the other way around.

We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak.  Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.

People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event.  Like the big ice storm in 2009.  Everyone will remember that winter.  Like the December tornado last year.  Everyone will remember that winter.

We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.

Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event.  We aren’t that accurate, yet.  Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks.  Not long range ones.

Here is what will influence the winter.

ENSO.  La Nina.  The third year in a row.  Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row.  This has only happened three times in recorded history.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

The graphic below shows the top analogs.  Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.

Analogs are years that are similar to the current one.  We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.

Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.

The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility.  Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.

The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks.  All four are warmer than average for our local area.  Orange and yellow.

The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks.  Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.

Only one model shows below average precipitation.  On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above.  Yellow is below.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Outlook thoughts.

Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department.  Above average in the precipitation department.

That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.

Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months.  That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms.  I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Preliminary winter outlook.  Temperatures and precipitation.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

.

.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

.

.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

.

Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

.


 

Comments are closed.