Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Tuesday, September 13, 2022. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.


48-hour forecast



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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Not at this time.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

5.  Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast?   No.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

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Tuesday, September 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82°  /  SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 80° /  South IL 78° to 82°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82°  /  West KY 78° to 82° /  NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: N 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset:  7:06 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56°  /  SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° /  South IL 54° to 56°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 54° to 56°  /  West KY 54° to 56° /  NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: N 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:05 PM
Moonset:  9:59 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Wednesday, September 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°  /  SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° /  South IL 84° to 86°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86°  /  West KY 84° to 86° /  NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: North 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset:  7:04 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58°  /  SE MO 56° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° /  South IL 56° to 58°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 56° to 58°  /  West KY 56° to 58° /  NW TN 56° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:33 PM
Moonset:  11:03 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Thursday, September 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°  /  SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° /  South IL 84° to 86°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86°  /  West KY 84° to 86° /  NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset:  7:03 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60°  /  SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 60° /  South IL 58° to 60°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 58° to 60°  /  West KY 58° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:07 PM
Moonset:  12:07 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Friday, September 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Friday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 88°  /  SE MO 86° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 88° /  South IL 86° to 88°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 86° to 88°  /  West KY 86° to 88° /  NW TN 86° to 88°
Winds will be from the: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset:  7:01AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62°  /  SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 62°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 62°  /  West KY 60° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: S 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:45 PM
Moonset:  1:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Saturday, September 17, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° /  South IL 86° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 86° to 90°  /  West KY 86° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 90°
Winds will be from the: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset:  7:00 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62°  /  SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 62° /  South IL 60° to 62°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 62°  /  West KY 60° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: S 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:28 PM
Moonset:  2:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Sunday, September 18, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° /  South IL 86° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 86° to 90°  /  West KY 86° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 90°
Winds will be from the: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset:  6:58 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: S 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset:  3:03 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Monday, September 19, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Monday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° /  South IL 86° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 86° to 90°  /  West KY 86° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 90°
Winds will be from the: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset:  6:56 AM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: S 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:18 AM
Moonset:  3:51 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High  confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°  /  SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° /  South IL 86° to 90°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 86° to 90°  /  West KY 86° to 90° /  NW TN 86° to 90°
Winds will be from the: South 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset:  6:55 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0% /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66°  /  SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° /  South IL 62° to 64°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64°  /  West KY 62° to 64° /  NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: S 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:18 AM
Moonset:  4:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

 

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click the tab below.


Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

 



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Today through September 20th:   Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.


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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

    1.  Spotter class tonight.  Please consider registering.  It is free and we could use your help.
    2.  Warming trend late week.

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Weather advice:

None

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Current Weather Discussion

We are waking up to calm weather!  All quiet on the weather front.

It is cool out there this morning.  It feels a bit more like autumn.

We will have plenty of sunshine today.

Temperatures will be below average today.  You can see the blue on this temperature anomaly map.

The only real weather news will be a warming trend as we move through the coming days.  You can see that some areas could even hit 90 degrees by the end of the week.  Warm.

You can see the red on this temperature anomaly map.  Red is above average.

The bad news, for those who need rain, is that it will remain dry.  No measurable rain in the current forecast.  We will just have to wait.

Fire season is upon us.  That could be a concern as we move through the autumn months.  We definitely could use some ground moisture.

Since our weather is quiet, I thought I would show you something of interest.  Tropical Storm Kay.  Off the California coast.  It is rare to see a  tropical storm this far north.

 

I could use your help!  The National Weather Service needs your help.

REGISTER NOW FOR FREE SPOTTER CLASSES

** Spotter class tonight.  Tuesday.  Register below. **

FREE spotter training classes!  EVERYONE is welcome.  Most of these classes are online.  We NEED more storm spotters.  You can spot from home.

After the Mayfield tornado, everyone is acutely aware of our fall and winter severe weather threats.   Often times, we don’t know what is happening on the ground (damage-wise) until we receive reports.

We need you.  Please consider signing up for the FREE classes.

More information here

https://www.weather.gov/pah/spottertraining

As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November.  Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.

Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone.  Make sure your subscription is up to date.

You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com 

These are the different product screens in the app.

Here is an example of the rapid-fire tornado messages that I send out.

Let’s keep that in the back of our mind.  The weather will become increasingly active as we push deeper into the autumn months.

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Join us for Surviving the Storm. Thursday, September 29 at 6:00 PM at the Hickman County Extension Office.

We will review the December 2021 Tornado, lessons learned, and disaster preparedness tips.

Justin Jackson, Hickman Office of Emergency Management Director, will overview the Hickman County tornado damage and response.

Door Prizes (including five Midland 120 NOAA Weather Radios) and Light Refreshments are provided.

This free event is sponsored by the Hickman County Office of Emergency Management and Hickman County Extension.

https://www.facebook.com/events/962061578018048/?ref=newsfeed



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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

 

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

 

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

Double click on image to enlarge it

Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM). 

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

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Early AM Energy/Agriculture Report. 

This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am

The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.

Double click this image to make it larger.


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

Click on the image to expand it.

This outlook covers September 13th through September 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers September 20th  through September 26th

Click on the image to expand it

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  90 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers September 27th through October 10th


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Precipitation outlook

 

Monthly Outlooks

Autumn OUTLOOK

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

September Temperature Outlook

 

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

October Temperature Outlook

Precipitation

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

November Temperature Outlook

November Precipitation Outlook

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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal

December Temperature Outlook

December Precipitation Outlook

The Winter Outlook has been posted.  Another La Nina winter.  As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.

La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal.  El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.

Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.

These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North

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No two winters are alike.  No two La Nina’s are alike.

The last two winters have been La Nina winters.  Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.

As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.  That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.

I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice.  Those are common during the La Nina winter years.

We will have to monitor the NAO.  If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.

What is the NAO?  Click here for more information.

Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.

What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events.  You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February.  Or, the other way around.

We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak.  Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.

People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event.  Like the big ice storm in 2009.  Everyone will remember that winter.  Like the December tornado last year.  Everyone will remember that winter.

We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.

Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event.  We aren’t that accurate, yet.  Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks.  Not long range ones.

Here is what will influence the winter.

ENSO.  La Nina.  The third year in a row.  Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row.  This has only happened three times in recorded history.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

The graphic below shows the top analogs.  Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.

Analogs are years that are similar to the current one.  We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.

Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.

The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility.  Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.

The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks.  All four are warmer than average for our local area.  Orange and yellow.

The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks.  Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.

Only one model shows below average precipitation.  On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above.  Yellow is below.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Outlook thoughts.

Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department.  Above average in the precipitation department.

That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.

Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months.  That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms.  I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

Preliminary winter outlook.  Temperatures and precipitation.

To better read the graphic, double click on it.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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