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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Tuesday, October 04, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 78° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 78° to 80°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:34 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 40° to 44° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:01 PM
Moonset: 12:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday, October 05, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some PM clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 78° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 78° / South IL 76° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:33 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:41 PM
Moonset: 1:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, October 06, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 80° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 78° to 82° / West KY 78° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 6:31 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: A few evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear. Turning cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 42° to 44° / South IL 43° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 43° to 46° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 46° to 50°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:14 PM
Moonset: 3:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, October 07, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Breezy, at times. Enhanced fire risk.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 64° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: North 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 6:30 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. I can’t rule out frost in cold favored locations (if the wind subsides).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 34° to 38° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 34° to 38° / West KY 34° to 38° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:43 PM
Moonset: 4:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, October 08, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 64° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 64° to 660° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:28 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. A chance of frost. A light freeze possible over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 35° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° / South IL 32° to 35° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 33° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A chance of frost. A light freeze possible over our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:11 PM
Moonset: 5:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday, October 09, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:27 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:37 PM
Moonset: 6:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Monday, October 10, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 76° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 76° / NW TN 76° to 78°
Winds will be from the: South 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 6:25 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 7:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Tuesday, October 11, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 74° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 7:00 AM
Sunset: 6:24 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° / SE MO 44° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 44° to 48° / West KY 44° to 48° / NW TN 44° to 48°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:31 PM
Moonset: 8:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through October 10th: Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Monitor updates. We typically see an increase in severe weather activity during the autumn months.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry. Dry. Dry.
- It has been a month since any significant rain fell across some of my forecast counties. Rare.
- Field and brush fire concerns continue to increase
- Monitoring frost chances Friday and Saturday night.
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Weather advice:
Avoid burning brush and leaves. Fire conditions are becoming an issue in many areas.
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Current Weather Discussion
Rare. That is all I can say about this dry spell.
It has been a month since any significant rain has fallen at The Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois. To go that long without significant rainfall is quite unusual. To say the least.
I don’t see any rain in the forecast. Not through at least next Monday.
I am watching October 13th through the 16th. Some models show a cold front with rain. That is a long way off in the weather world. Thus, confidence isn’t great. It is simply something that I am monitoring.
The only real weather story will be drought and the chance of frost.
Some of you experienced frost last week. A few locations reported frost this morning. Cody Simmerman sent in this photograph. This is south southeast of Marion, Illinois. Lows last night fell into the 30s across portions of the region.
It will turn colder Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will likely dip into the 30s Friday night and Saturday night.
There could be some frost Friday night, but wind speed might inhibit its formation.
Winds will be lighter Saturday night. Thus, the risk of frost will be higher Saturday night.
Either way, it will be chilly.
Highs Friday into Sunday will likely remain in the 60s. Lows in the 30s.
Check out the temperature anomaly map ahead and behind the cold front Thursday and Friday.
Thursday will deliver above average temperatures. Highs near 80 degrees.
The warm colors represent above average temperatures.
Friday will turn cooler. Below average temperatures. Highs in the 60s.
Drought conditions will continue to worsen over the coming days. Again, use care if you must burn fields or brush. Numerous fires have been reported over the past few weeks.
The GFS model shows rain around October 14th. Thunderstorms. Long way off. I will monitor. Check out the snow across northern Minnesota.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The early AM agricultural graphics will return next spring.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 4th through October 11th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers October 12th through October 19th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers October 18th through October 31st
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows the top analogs. Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.
Analogs are years that are similar to the current one. We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.
Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.
The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility. Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.
The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks. All four are warmer than average for our local area. Orange and yellow.
The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks. Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.
Only one model shows below average precipitation. On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above. Yellow is below.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Preliminary winter outlook. Temperatures and precipitation.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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