Tuesday, May 30, 2023. Monitoring rain chances.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how many degrees above or below average temperatures will be).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset is also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated to scattered. A chance of lightning Tuesday east of the Land Between the Lakes in Kentucky. A chance of lightning area-wide Wednesday through Saturday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm in western Kentucky. Mainly east of the Land Between the Lakes.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:09 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A few evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear. A slight chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm east of the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated east of LBL
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:37 PM
Moonset: 2:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Warmer. Mostly sunny during the morning. Partly cloudy during the afternoon and evening. A chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:41 PM
Moonset: 3:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday, June 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 86° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 86° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
Sunset: 8:10 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: A few evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated/ending
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 5:47 PM
Moonset: 3:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights

1. Decent weather.
2. Thunderstorms chances.
3. Warming trend into the weekend. Hot temperatures are on the way.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Don’t forget the sunscreen on this summer warm days!

Forecast Discussion

Nice weather continues (as we search for rain).

Another day of decent late spring weather for the region.

Let’s look at some temperature and precipitation data trends.

For the long range temperature outlook, look at all the blue towards the end of the period. Cooler than average temperatures. That could mean wetter, as well.

The day eleven through fifteen time-frame is especially loaded with blue.

In the day one through five range, the data showing mostly dry weather. Isolated thunderstorm chances. Yellow represents a dry pattern.

In the day six through ten period, the data is showing mixed signals.

Finally, in the day eleven through fifteen time-frame, the data is showing wetter trends. Our going forecast has been for a wetter pattern shift towards the middle/end of June. Some of the data is starting to show that idea. Fingers crossed.

We do have some clouds in the region this morning. Those will become a bit more broken as we move through the day.

For the upcoming week, we will see a slow warming trend with each passing day.

There will be a daily chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Mainly, heat of the day type activity.

The chances are slim Tuesday afternoon and evening. The chances Tuesday will mainly be to the east of the Land Between the Lakes.

Then, Wednesday into the weekend, the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be area-wide.

I capped chances between 20% and 30%.

Obviously, many locations still need rain. Some of us need a lot of rain.

Rainfall totals Tuesday through Saturday will vary greatly. From no rain to over an inch. Slow moving thunderstorms, during this time of the year, can drop quite a bit of rain in a short amount of time.

Typical summer type thunderstorms. Cloud to ground lightning will be a concern, as well. Perhaps some gusty winds will accompany a few of the thunderstorms. Especially as they weaken and collapse.

Many areas may once again miss out on this weeks rain chances.

We will have a warming trend with each passing day. Thursday into the weekend will see temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s. I reserve the word “hot” for 90 and above.

As El Nino continues to develop, in the Pacific Ocean, our weather pattern should start to turn wetter. That is the long range forecast, at least. Fingers crossed.

We don’t want drought.

Double click images to enlarge them.

The summer video forecast can be found on your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app or on the www.weathertalk.com website under the video tab.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the SPC WRF Model.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the NAM 3K Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 81 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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