Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Good morning, everyone.

This is from the National Weather Service.

We are up to 183 miles of tornado damage in our forecast area from March 14-15.

This places us in 2nd place for most tornado track miles from one event.

Only May 26, 2024 with 255.6 miles had more.

There are more surveys to conduct in the days ahead, but for now, here is the updated event summary webpage: https://www.weather.gov/pah/Mar14-15_2025Severe

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Yesterday, we woke up to temperatures in our 20s and 30s.  Brrr.  This morning is not quite as cold, thankfully.

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It will turn warmer today.  It’s windy, as well.  Winds will gust up to 35 mph.  This will combine with relative humidity levels in the 20s and 30s.    This is a bad combination when it comes to field and brush fires.

We will have an enhanced fire danger today through Wednesday.  Avoid burning fields or trash.

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A cold front will push across the region on Wednesday afternoon and night.  This front will deliver a band of showers and thunderstorms.

It will also bring strong and gusty winds, as well.  A wind advisory or high wind warning may need to be issued.  Winds of 20 to 45 mph will likely develop over our region.  Some gusts above 50 mph will be possible.

You can see the low-pressure area on this map over northern Illinois.  A windy system.

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The NAM model shows those gusty winds today.

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And tomorrow

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Thunderstorm chances.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a low level one risk of severe weather.  The scale goes from one to five.

One being the lowest.  That would be the dark green zone.  The light green is where thunderstorms are possible but likely below severe levels.

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Damaging wind risk zone.

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And the hail risk zone

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A few of the storms could perk up to severe levels.  The primary concern will be a few reports of quarter-size hail and 60 mph winds.  The tornado risk is low but perhaps not zero.

The storm fuel map shows a little bit of energy in the region.  Nothing like our last event.

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Here is the Wednesday system.

Here is the NAM 3K model future-cast radar for the Wednesday storms.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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A small chance of a lingering shower on Thursday.  Hopefully, there will be some clearing on Thursday behind the cold front.  Sometimes, these systems wrap around a few clouds.  Cooler temperatures.

Another cold front will move across the region on Sunday.

This one may also bring a threat of severe weather.  However, confidence in the track of the area of low pressure remains low.

If the low tracks over us or to our south, then the severe threat will be lower.

Right now, the Storm Prediction Center currently has a severe risk to our south.

Monitor updates.

The front will have a bit more moisture with it.

The higher dew points may remain to our south on Sunday.  That would be good news if so.

Here are the dew points.  I usually look for 58 degrees and above when forecasting severe weather.

The dew point is a measure of moisture.

That blue color represents 60-degree dew points or higher.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

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Here is the system on the GFS model.  Future-cast radar.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click on this animation to enlarge it.

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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather