11 AM update
Hail is possible with some storms today. I think there will be some pea to dime size reports. Quarter size is possible with the most intense storms. Dry air aloft and a very low freezing level means hail chances are fairly high. Low CAPE values (energy) leads me to believe it won’t get out control with severe. But, hail seems a good bet with some storms.
Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois is the main concern. Possibly west Kentucky. More like MO/IL.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A period of clouds moving in from the north. A chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon. A couple of storms could produce hail – especially over southeast Missouri. Other areas monitor. The system is coming in a bit stronger than earlier forecast. Highs in the 60’s. Light winds. Windy at times. Southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy and cool. Temperatures in the 40’s.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – A chance for a storm during the late afternoon. Otherwise, some clouds. Highs in the upper 60’s. Gusty winds.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms. A few strong storms possible. Cool. Lows in the 40’s. Southwest winds at 15 mph. Winds becoming north/northwest at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars as some storms are possible.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy…perhaps mostly cloudy in the afternoon and evening. Chance for a morning light shower. Highs in the 60’s south and perhaps 50’s far northern counties of southern Illinois. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Lows in the upper 30’s far northern counties southern Illinois and generally 40’s elsewhere. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday – Some sun northeast counties and some clouds elsewhere and cool. Highs mostly in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Storm Tracking Page that I have made to make it easier for you to track storms – click here
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Highlights
1. Some thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and night. Storm is coming in stronger than forecast.
2. Below normal temperatures
3. See the extended forecast further down in the blog for a Friday and Saturday rain maker.
A cold front arrives today. It is coming in stronger than forecast. A few thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Cold air aloft means some hail and gusty winds could occur with storms.
Let’s look at the Future-Cast radar for Tuesday afternoon and night.
This first graphic is the 6 PM future-cast radar. Some strong storms over the area.
Let’s move ahead to 9 pm
Then the 1 am future-cast radar – storms weakening.
It is very possible that many areas do not pick up measurable rainfall on Tuesday. But, some will pick up quite a bit of intense storms form.
A very large upper level low pressure system over Canada is going to keep us on the cool side of temperatures over the coming week. This thing is huge!
Here is what it looks like on the surface map See the 987 low over Canada? Lows spin counter-clockwise. Thus, we will be in northwest flow. You may remember from previous posts that a NW flow means cooler air coming into our region from the north. If this was winter then it would be quite cold. But, it is spring! We will just be below normal in the temperature department. A frost and freeze is possible to our east.
Let’s look at the 500 mb map. This is about 18,000 feet above the Earth’s surface. See the NW flow? How the winds (the colors) are coming into our region from the northwest? NW flow! at least at upper levels. We may briefly see winds coming from the southwest or south on Tuesday.
You can see it here, as well
A couple of cold fronts will advance into our region over the coming days. This means a chance for some precipitation. These systems are coming from the north/northwest.
Thee first chance of precipitation will be this afternoon and tonight. Some storms are forecast to develop over Missouri and Illinois. They would be moving southeast. Kentucky should see a few storms, as well. Previously I was thinking we would not have any severe storms. But, now it appears we could have a couple. Monitor updates.
The fronts will stall to our south, but hopefully far enough south that we won’t have to deal with too much precipitation. See the precipitation charts further down in the blog.
One period of rain chances will arrive later on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Some of the storms could be heavy on Tuesday afternoon and night.
Eventually our big upper level low over Canada will shift eastward. That will allow the jet stream to become a bit more west to east.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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A few storms Tuesday afternoon and night could be strong. Monitor updates. Hail would be the primary concern.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO. A couple of storms could be strong on Tuesday afternoon and night. Hail being the main concern. Strong winds are a secondary concern.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe storms
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe storms
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates. Track of the low is key to where severe might occur.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe storms
For the most up to date maps – click here
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall amounts on Tuesday and Tuesday night will vary. Locally heavy thunderstorms could produce a quick 1/2″ of rain. As always a storm or two can produce locally heavier amounts.
Rainfall amounts through Thursday night (current forecast). Again, a few spots could have more than this.
and then through early next week. You can really tell where that southern storm tracks. Heavier precip in its path.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Where is the warm weather? Strange weather pattern with wild jet stream swings. I do think towards first week of May, MAYBE we will start to see sustained warmth. There are signs middle of May with bring above normal temperatures.
Hoping we avoid the frost and freeze that will occur to our east over coming days. I am monitoring it closely.
Our next significant system will be on Friday and Saturday. It is more of a winter storm track than a spring track. Area of low pressure is currently forecast to track to our south. If that happens we would be on the cool side of the system with rain. Smaller chances for storms. Could be a severe weather event to our south. If the low tracks further north then we will be in the zone for severe storms.
Here is what that looks like on the weather maps. See the low to our south?
This is the Thursday evening map. See the low back in the Rockies (red L). It is moving eastward. It should track to our south. That puts us on the cool side of the system (non-severe side for storms). It might mean more rain for the weekend. I mean why not! Weekends seem to be the new rainy time. Purple and blue are rain. You can see the area of low pressure.
This is the Friday night map. Purple and blue are rain. You can see the area of low pressure.
This is Saturday afternoon map. Purple and blue are rain. You can see the area of low pressure. If this was January I would be forecasting snow and ice. The trend on the data has been further north. This concerns me. Monitor updates as we move forward.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
