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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A small chance of lightning Saturday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Thursday, October 27, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool. Some early morning patchy fog near rivers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:03 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Some early morning patchy fog near rivers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset: 7:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, October 28, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 69° to 70°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph becoming east northeast.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cooler north vs south. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers after 3 AM over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 3 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:58 AM
Moonset: 8:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, October 29, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers. Shower chances will increase from southwest to northeast. There remain some timing differences in the guidance. It is possible the bulk of the rain holds off until Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage from the southwest. Isolated early and then scattered afternoon. Becoming numerous during the evening and overnight hours.
Timing of the rain: Mainly after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars (bottom of this page or on the website)
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with rain becoming widespread. A thunderstorm is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~60%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:05 PM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. Decreasing coverage during the afternoon.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. If the system speeds up a bit, then I will remove Sunday night shower chances. I am monitoring trends.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 1:08 PM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy during the morning. Some afternoon clearing. A slight chance of an early morning shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:59 PM
Moonset: 11:41 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Tuesday, November 1, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:42 PM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:16 PM
Moonset: 12:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, November 3, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:22 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:46 PM
Moonset: 2:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through November 8th: I am watching a storm system around November 5th through 7th. This is still in the long range. I will monitor trends in the guidance. It is too early to know if severe weather will threaten our region.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Another nice autumn day across the region.
- Rain chances ramp up this weekend.
- Monitoring a storm system in the long range.
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Weather advice:
Although we did receive some much needed rainfall, conditions remain dry in the region. Gusty winds will help dry vegetation out. Continue to avoid burning fields and brush. Use care with farm equipment, camp fires, and grills.
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Current Weather Discussion
We have a nice day on tap for the region. Sunshine. Nice temperatures. Couldn’t ask for nicer autumn weather. Well, other than the drought. But, we know that.
The leaves this year have been amazing. Brilliant colors in many areas. The dry weather did not seem to impact leaf color. At least not that I could tell.
We have certainly had a solid autumn, thus far. Plenty of nice days and cool nights. It felt like autumn, for once. Our seasons have been so out of whack. For once, it has felt like the season it is.
We have no weather concerns through Friday evening. Enjoy the nice weather.
A storm system will approach from the southwest late Friday night. This area of low pressure will push rain back into the region. Thank goodness. We need this rain.
The rain will enter the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee as early as late Friday night and Saturday morning.
It will then spread northeast from there.
It is possible the bulk of the region remains dry until Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. That is the one portion of the forecast with the most questions. The exact timing of rain.
For planning purposes, you should plan on showers Saturday. Widespread rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Scattered showers Sunday afternoon. Rain chances dwindle as we move into Sunday night.
You can see those probabilities on these maps. At least the general idea.
Through Saturday 7 AM. Rain chances approaching from the south southwest. Moving northeast.
During the day Saturday. Rain chances continue to increase southwest to northeast.
Saturday night. Widespread rain. High probabilities.
Sunday
Sunday night. Rain chances diminish.
As far as rain totals go. This could be a decent rain for some areas.
The blend of model forecast.
And here is the WPC NOAA forecast.
Some areas could top an inch of rain.
There could be a shower or two left in the region early Monday morning, but I continue to leave that portion of the forecast dry.
I will monitor trends. Some clouds may linger.
Dry conditions are likely Monday through at least Wednesday.
I continue to watch another system in the long range. Towards the end of next week. For now, that is just a watcher. It keeps showing up in the data, but model guidance isn’t in agreement on the details.
The European model is the most aggressive with it. It shows a cold front with thunderstorms. The GFS model isn’t as bullish.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 27th through November 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers November 3rd through November 9th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 8th through November 21st
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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