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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Saturday and Saturday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. There is a risk that a few storms could become severe Saturday and Saturday night. The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail. There are some questions about exactly where the cold front stalls. That will make a big difference as to where storms form. Monitor updates. I will send out some app messages.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Thursday, October 13, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Windy. High fire danger. Use care if you must burn fields.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 68° / South IL 65° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 65° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy dense fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 38° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 34° to 38° / West KY 38° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Winds will be from the: Light northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 10:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, October 14, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Increasing clouds late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 56° / SE MO 46° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 50° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:20 PM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, October 15, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Chances are higher the further south you travel. A few strong storms will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 76° to 78° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 78° to 80° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few of the thunderstorms could produce gusty wind and perhaps even hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 48° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 46° to 50° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few of the thunderstorms could produce gusty wind and perhaps even hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:09 PM
Moonset: 12:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, October 16, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly across the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee. Chances north of there are small.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (south)
Timing of the rain: Mainly the first half of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Clearing and colder. Patchy fog. Patchy frost if the wind subsides.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 38° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 38° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 1:45 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, October 17, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: Southwest and west 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:16 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Frost likely. A freeze is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 32° to 34° / West KY 32° to 34° / NW TN 32° to 34°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and or freeze will be possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 2:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Tuesday, October 18, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 52° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 52° to 55° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost and/or freeze likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 30° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and or freeze will be possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 3:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through October 22nd: There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the southern half of the region in a marginal risk of severe weather. The primary concern will be damaging wind and hail.
Confidence in this event is low, for now. Indications are that a frontal boundary will stall over the southern half of the region. Storms that form could be intense. Upper level winds are strong enough to support some hail. We will need to monitor the position of the frontal boundary.
The primary concern will be Saturday afternoon and night. The area of concern is greatest from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Lesser concerns as you travel north.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- It rained! A little.
- High risk of field fires today.
- Thunderstorm chances over the weekend.
- Another frost and freeze alert for Monday and Tuesday night of next week.
- Updated winter outlook graphics
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Weather advice:
Avoid burning brush and leaves. Fire conditions are becoming an issue in many areas.
Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night. A few could be intense with high wind and even hail. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
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Current Weather Discussion
A rare red flag warning has been issued for the region. Gusty winds will combine with very low relative humidity levels. This will produce conditions that will help rapidly spread field and brush fires.
Do not burn fields or brush today or tomorrow. It could easily spread.
Your fire department will think you.
The pink zones are the red flag warnings.
Otherwise, today will be cool, windy, and dry.
We did have rain yesterday. As a matter of fact, some heavy thunderstorms spread across some counties. Others saw very little. A few spots picked up nothing.
The Weather Observatory measured 0.16″ of precipitation. That is the most rain in over a month. It has been dry dry dry.
We need more. A lot more.
Drought conditions will continue to worse until widespread rain falls across the region.
New drought maps will be issued later today.
Here was last weeks map.
Here is the new map.
Zoomed in
Double click on images to enlarge them
I have increased shower and thunderstorm chances (for some) this coming Saturday into Sunday.
There still remain some questions about the overall forecast.
One question that remains on the table is how far south will the frontal boundary sink in the region. If it is too far south then the higher precipitation chances will be south of our region.
For now, it appears the front will stall out somewhere across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.
That will provide the lift for precipitation to form.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. There is just enough energy in the atmosphere to produce some thunderstorms.
A few of the storms could produce strong wind gusts and even hail.
We are in a risk of severe weather Saturday.
Here is what that currently looks like. This is certainly subject to adjustments. Again, if the front dips south a tad more then the severe weather risk will go with it.
We will need to monitor trends today and tomorrow.
The light green represents non-severe thunderstorms. The olive green represents where a few storms could become severe.
I will be keeping an eye on it. I will send out app messages if something develops.
Rain totals will again vary greatly. Our northern counties may end up with little or no measurable precipitation.
Our southern counties could end up with 0.50″ or more. Thunderstorms can always produce locally higher rain totals.
We desperately need the rain. Even on a weekend.
Another developing weather story will be a shot of cold air next Monday and Tuesday. It appears some of the coldest air of the season will push into the region.
A hard frost and/or freeze will be possible Monday and Tuesday night. I have lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Brrr. Autumn air.
Yesterday, I did a weather presentation at Egyptian Elementary School in Tamms, Illinois.
Smart class! These knew the answers to almost every weather question thrown at them. Mrs. Julie White was the teacher. Great teacher.
I brought some weather instruments with me.
We talked about what causes snow vs freezing rain, sleet, and plain old rain!
Updated Winter Forecast
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 12th through October 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers October 19th through October 25th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers October 21st through November 3rd
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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