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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Unlikely.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Monitor updates. A slight chance Friday night over the southern quarter of the area. Dusting, at most. I am watching next Monday night into Tuesday. A mixture of precipitation is likely. I am watching next Thursday and Friday.
6. Is freezing rain in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Monitor update. I am watching Monday night and Tuesday. The risk, overall, appears to be low. Monitor updates, as well. I am watching next Thursday night and Friday.
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South 12 to 24 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:29AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds overnight. A chance of a shower. A cold front will move across the region Thursday night/Friday morning. The remnants of Hurricane Nicole may approach our southeast counties. This will bring colder air. Colder air over our western counties vs eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over most of the area. Scattered near and east of Kentucky Lake.
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:14 PM
Moonset: 8:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, November 11, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of a few showers. Colder. Falling temperatures from west to east as the day wears on. Windy, at times. The remnants of Hurricane Nicole will approach from our southeast. That could spread a band of light showers into portions of western Tennessee and western Kentucky. The odds of precipitation increase as you move farther south and east. That means Hopkinsville has a better chance at seeing a shower vs Paducah.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A fast moving weak system will approach from the southwest. This will spread some clouds into the region. Light rain and snow showers will be possible over mainly the southern quarter of the region. There is quite a bit of dry air aloft for precipitation to overcome. Thus, most of it will evaporate before reaching the ground.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (mainly south). The dry air may be too deep. If so, the precipitation would evaporate. Virga would be the end result.
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph becoming north northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 9:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, November 12, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Party to mostly sunny. More clouds during the morning vs afternoon. A cold day for the region. A slight chance of a light shower or snow flurry during the morning hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Before 11 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Bitterly cold. Cold wind chill values, as well.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:52 PM
Moonset: 10:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, November 13, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Another cold day for the area.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:47 PM
Moonset: 11:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, November 14, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 8 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:45PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. A system will move into our region from the southwest. It will be moving northeast. It will spread a wintry mix across our region. Confidence is increasing that some type of precipitation will occur. The system has sped up by 12 hours. Temperatures will vary from north to south. It is possible that some of the region will be above freezing for this event. If so, it will be plain rain in those areas. Monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time (more likely after 10 PM)
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps some icy roadways (depending on precipitation rate).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates forecast.
Moonrise: 9:47 PM
Moonset: 12:06AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy during the morning with a chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Temperatures will vary across the region and that will decide precipitation type. Temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing across the entire region. Monitor updates as this event is still five days away.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the day.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates concerning a chance of a wintry mix early in the day, as well.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Clearing. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:47PM
Moonset: 12:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 26° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 28° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 11:48 PM
Moonset: 1:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through November 23rd: Severe thunderstorms are currently not anticipated. As always, check future forecast updates.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- One more warm day. Then, the cold arrives.
- A few light showers possible tonight into Friday.
- Much colder Friday into next week.
- A couple of sprinkles or flurries possible Friday night and Saturday morning (mainly TN/KY).
- A mixture of precipitation Monday night and Tuesday.
- Another system late next week.
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Weather advice:
Much colder air will arrive this weekend. A shock to the system. We are going from much above average temperatures to much below average temperatures.
Monitor updates concerning a weather system next Monday night into Tuesday.
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Current Weather Discussion
Wow. Yesterday was another amazing weather day across the region. It sure was mild. Widespread 70s!
All good things must come to an end. As they say.
Recent warm days, is going to make the forecast even more frigid. We are used to the warmth. We aren’t quite used to the cold. Not yet, at least.
Time to get ready. It is coming. Heavy jackets will be required for this forecast.
Check out this mornings weather map.
A hurricane moved ashore in Florida overnight. There is a blizzard across the northern plains.
The red spiral in Florida is the hurricane. The red L in Minnesota is the area of low pressure that is creating blizzard conditions.
Notice the advancing cold front approaching our area from the west? The blue line with triangles in Kansas. That is the cold front that will bring an abrupt end to our regions beautiful weather.
Today’s watches and warnings. Red blizzard conditions across Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Hurricane warnings in Florida. No watches or warnings in our region. Thankfully.
The pink and purple colors represents winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories.
Here is this morning’s radar image of Hurricane Nicole. Spiraling across Florida.
Want a live view of this radar? Here is a link
Zoom radar (click the link below)
ZoomRadar
Here is the northern view radar. White and blue represent snow well to our northwest.
A thin band of showers extends along the cold front from Minnesota into Kansas. Not much. Not enough to break the ongoing drought conditions.
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Check out this temperature map. Very warm ahead of this cold front. Just look at Minnesota, for example. Bitterly cold air across the northwest portion of the state and well above average temperatures in the southeast portion of the state.
That is what is headed our direction. Colder air.
It will be warm ahead of the cold front. Cold behind it.
Here is a computer animation of the temperature forecast today into Friday night.
Watch the cold air advance across our local area tonight and tomorrow.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is this morning’s satellite view. Low pressure spins what direction? Counter-clockwise! I drew some arrows representing that.
You can see the blizzard to our northwest. You can see the hurricane to our southeast.
Notice the cloud spirals moving towards us from Hurricane Nicole. We will have some incoming clouds from the southeast.
Unfortunately, the cold front will likely push across our region with only a few light showers. We need rain. Drought continues.
Nicole may push just far enough northwest to bring a few showers into Kentucky and Tennessee.
This is the future-cast radar for around midnight tonight (give or take). You can see the cold front to our west. You can see Nicole to our southeast.
Perhaps a few showers with each. The front will actually be drying out as sinking air from Hurricane Nicole pushes into our region.
Here is the future-cast radar for early tomorrow morning (around 4 AM).
Perhaps a few showers in the area. Not much. This model is a bit more bullish over Kentucky and Tennessee.
My forecast is for a few showers to push towards northwest into the region. The primary area of concern would be Kentucky and perhaps northwest Tennessee.
The farther southeast you travel, the more likely you run into a rain shower (from Nicole).
Rain totals would be light.
We desperately need more rain. Extensive drought continues across our region.
The cold front arrives tonight and tomorrow.
Friday’s temperatures will vary across the region.
Colder west and a tad milder east. Cooler area-wide vs what we have been experiencing.
You can see that temperature spread on this map (Friday’s highs).
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Snow or rain tomorrow night and Saturday morning?
A fast moving weak system will brush the region Friday night and early Saturday morning.
This may bring a couple of sprinkles or flurries to the area. It is possible that there will be enough dry air to prevent the precipitation from reaching the ground.
Either way, it would be a light event. I will monitor trends. A few days ago that system wasn’t showing up in the charts.
I have added some light precipitation chances to the Friday night/Saturday morning forecast.
Check your app for updates. If necessary, I will send out a message or two.
Here is what the EC model shows. It is the most bullish on a wintry mix Friday night and Saturday morning.
Here is what the high resolution NAM model shows Friday night/Saturday morning.
The NAM keeps everything to our south and east.
It will be cold, thus if something were to fall from the sky, then it could stick. Roads will be warm from our recent warm weather.
Remember, bridges freeze first. Slow down if the payment appears wet.
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Winter Storm Threat?
What I know.
- Precipitation is likely Monday night and Tuesday. The system has sped up by 12 hours.
- Precipitation amounts are forecast to be light, but this deserves monitoring.
What I don’t know.
- Precipitation type for each location in the region. It may end up mostly rain in some areas. A wintry mix elsewhere.
- Whether the system will spin up into a deeper area of low pressure or remain flat and spread out. A deeper low would be more concerning for snow and ice. A weaker system would likely bring a mix to the region, but light amounts.
Yesterday, I went into detail about another precipitation event next Monday night and Tuesday. See yesterday’s blog post for that.
I did speed the system timing up by 12 hours. It is moving faster.
I continue to monitor this system. Data has not come into better agreement on the overall details. Other than there is a chance of precipitation.
One item of interest will be temperatures Monday night and Tuesday morning. It may very well end up above freezing across portions of the area. In particular, the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and perhaps even portions of western Kentucky.
That would raise questions on whether precipitation type would be rain, snow, or a wintry mix.
Odds of frozen precipitation certainly increase as you travel farther north and west in the region vs south and east.
I continue to monitor trends in the data.
Let me show you some model guidance for this precipitation event.
The EC model (there are many models to look at) shows widespread precipitation developing to our west/southwest next Wednesday. It then moves east northeast.
Mostly rain over the southern two-thirds of the area. A wintry mix over our western and northern counties. This map is Monday night/Tuesday morning. Green is rain. Blue is snow. Purple is a wintry mix.
The GFS model shows something similar.
Here is the GFS model animation. It shows the Monday night and Tuesday event and another one late next week.
Ensembles.
Ensembles are the same model that is ran over and over again. With slightly different beginning variables.
The more squares that agree, the more likely the eventual outcome of the weather event.
The general idea is that the more of these squares that match, the greater the confidence in the eventual outcome.
As you can see most of the squares show some type of precipitation. Some have rain. Some have snow.
EC ensembles. More and more of the EC ensembles are beginning to show some type of precipitation. Rain and snow.
What the EC ensembles are not showing is a large storm system with copious amounts of precipitation.
GEFS ensembles.
They show precipitation, but mostly light.
Here are the snowfall forecasts from the EC ensembles.
Some show snow accumulation. Many do not. The odds of this being a significant snow event appears to be low.
And the GFS snow ensembles. How much snow are they showing? Not much.
What does all of that mean?
I continue to monitor the system. I increased precipitation probabilities Monday night into Tuesday morning. I placed them in the likely category for portions of the region.
This appears to be a light precipitation event. Fast moving.
I can’t rule out snow accumulation over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.
For now, confidence in snow accumulation Monday night and Tuesday appears low across the rest of the region.
Monitor updates. I will monitor trends in the guidance and continue to update accordingly.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers November 10th through November 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers November 17th through November 23rd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 22nd through December 5th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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