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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
Temperatures and precipitation chances are going to vary greatly from north to south through Monday. Keep that in mind.
Areas north of the cold front will be several degrees cooler than areas to the south. This makes for a complicated AREA-WIDE general forecast.
See the written forecast details further down in the blog for each section of the region.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through at least next Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Storms could be locally intense with high wind gusts.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain, which can quickly flood roadways and ditches.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Possible today over far southern Missouri into northwest Tennessee. Perhaps along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Less likely elsewhere. I am monitoring next week. Today through Sunday, however, may remain below 100.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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July 28, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures may vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~4 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Chances may be lower far north and highest far south. Depending on the frontal boundaries placement.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~4 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 65° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 65° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Winds will be from the: Variable wind direction 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:35 AM
Moonset: 7:56 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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July 29, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures may vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north. Numerous south.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Chances are lower across the northern half of the region vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~4 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none far north. Scattered far south.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 60° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:33 AM
Moonset: 9:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 30, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of scattered thunderstorms. Our northern counties may end up dry. Highest rain chances across our far southern counties. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: None north. None north. Scattered to perhaps numerous far south. A wide range of chances from north to south. Keep that in mind.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Northeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:05 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Chances are lower across the northern half of the region vs south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~4 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: None north. Scattered far south.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 62° to 64° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 64° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 62° to 64° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:33 AM
Moonset: 9:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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July 31, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 80° to 84°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~4 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Winds will be from the: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:35 AM
Moonset: 10:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 1, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~4 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 70° to 74° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check your Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:35 AM
Moonset: 10:28 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through August 5th: Thunderstorms over the next several days could produce scattered reports of wind damage. Monitor forecasts and your Beau Dodson Weather app for updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue.
- Heavy rain fell overnight in some counties. Others were missed, again.
- Monitoring Sunday into Tuesday. The front may move back north with additional thunderstorms.
- Hotter next week, again. If the front moves north.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways. Thunderstorms can produce one to two inches of rain in less than thirty minutes.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app. Thunderstorms are likely over the next several days. A few could become severe with high wind gusts.
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Weather Discussion
Well, it was another night of heavy rain in the region. Not everywhere, but for some.
Thunderstorms erupted yesterday afternoon over southeast Missouri and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Some places received more than three inches of rain.
Then, last night there was heavy rain over portions of southeast Illinois into western Kentucky. Some locations received more than two inches of rain.
Fredonia, Kentucky, reported 3.5″ of rain overnight.
Here are the radar estimated 24 hour rain totals. Scale top left. Sorry, the state outlines are a little hard to see.
Zoomed in on western Kentucky
Zoomed in on more of western Kentucky
Regionally
Double click on the image to enlarge the graphic
Zoomed in on southeast Missouri
Zoomed in on the rest of southern Illinois
I know western Kentucky needs rain in a bad way. Here are some totals. WIDE range from county to county (even mile to mile)
zoomed in on the LBL region. Look at this heavy band.
Check out Graves County. They are still waiting for rain.
So, it did rain in some areas. It did not rain everywhere.
The forecast continues to be for additional shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend.
Remember, this is a lengthy event. I did promise everyone some rain before it was all said and done. I stand by that!
We still have some locations in need of rain. A lot of rain, actually.
Here are the latest drought monitor maps.
Zoomed in on the Midwest
Zoomed in on KY. Double click images to enlarge them.
Zoomed in on TN
Over the last four weeks there has been improvement in conditions over portions of the region.
We have additional disturbances that will push across the region later this afternoon and tonight. This wave will trigger another round or two of intense thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce very heavy rain, high wind gusts, and lightning.
Some locations will pick up an inch of rain in fifteen minutes. Same as recent days. Localized flooding issues can’t be ruled out.
The WPC/NOAA/NWS has placed us in a risk of excessive rainfall. What does that mean? It simply means that some areas could receive enough rain to cause flash flooding.
Today’s outlook
The green is a low end risk. Yellow is a higher risk. Red is the highest risk on this particular map. Again, this means locally heavy rain may occur.
Tomorrow
Saturday
We continue to have very high PWAT values. Yesterday, PWAT values hit 2.5″ in southeast Missouri. That is tropical air.
PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.
Here is the PWAT animation for the coming days. You can see that area of high PWAT values in and near our region. It sort of wavers around.
You can tell the front sags southward with time. That pushes the PWAT values south. Then, they return north.
Rain totals today through Friday night will vary greatly. Same as recent weeks. Sort of a broken record on this one. Some locations will remain dry. Others will receive several inches of much needed rainfall.
We will have shower and thunderstorm chances Saturday and Sunday, as well.
There is some question on the exact placement of the cold front this weekend. The placement of the cold front will determine how high our rain chances will or won’t be.
As it stands, the highest chances appear to be across areas from the Missouri/Arkansas state line eastward into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
The front is forecast to return north as a warm front Sunday and Monday. That would push shower and thunderstorm chances further north. It would also bring warmer/muggier air back northward.
We are not finished with heat waves. The charts show plenty of hot weather in August. It is still summer.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM). Double click on images to enlarge them.
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Early AM Energy Report.
Double click on images to enlarge them.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers July 28th through August 3rd
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers August 4th through August 10th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers August 5th through August 18th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Forecast
Temperatures
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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