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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Several area newspapers will have tornado book inserts. The book will tell the stories of those impacted by the December 10, 2021, tornado outbreak. Here are the dates for the different newspapers.
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Friday night. I will then start focusing on next week. A blast of arctic air will sweep across the region Thursday and Friday. Wind chill values will likely dip below zero late next week and next weekend.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. Flurries are possible today and tomorrow. Snow flurries or snow showers today and tomorrow should remain light enough to prevent any issues.
Light snow is possible late Sunday night and Monday (mainly SE MO). Another chance of precipitation towards the middle and end of next week. Perhaps some accumulating snow. I am not forecasting accumulating snow before Wednesday.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor. Monitor updates concerning next week’s weather.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Thursday , December 15, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Colder. Breezy. A mix of sun and clouds. Increasing cloud cover through the day. A chance of a light sprinkle or flurry where clouds are thickest.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Clouds will be thicker the farther north and northeast you travel. Thicker clouds over Illinois and northwest Kentucky vs the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. A chance of flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 26° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 26° to 30°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:36 PM
Moonset: 12:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday , December 16, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. More clouds over our northern counties and northeastern counties vs southwestern counties. That would mean northern portions of southern Illinois into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky for more clouds. A slight chance of a flurry or sprinkle where clouds are thickest.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow flurries over Illinois and Kentucky. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 5%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 5%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 12:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow flurries. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A small chance of a flurry.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:30 AM
Moonset: 12:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, December 18, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some increase in high clouds during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of a snow flurry or snow shower over priamairly southeast Missouri. The rest of the region should remain dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 22°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:39 AM
Moonset: 1:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Monday, December 19, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of light rain or a snow flurry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 1 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 16° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor the chance of snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 2:44 AM
Moonset: 1:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, December 20, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: x° to x°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:55 AM
Moonset: 2:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of rain and snow. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: after 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:09 AM
Moonset: 2:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 31st: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Calm weather today through Sunday.
- Turning cooler today.
- Turning colder into the weekend.
- Bitterly cold air next week.
- Monitor snow chances.
Weather advice:
Monitor updates. An active weather pattern over the new few weeks. Several chances of precipitation.
Current Weather Discussion
Rain fell across much of the region yesterday. I ended up with over two inches at The Weather Observatory (for the two day period).
We needed that soaking rain.
Most areas did receive a decent rain over the past few days. A widespread one to two inches in total. Locally above two inches.
That rain has long moved away from the region. That leaves us with some clouds.
Clouds will be with us today. Southern counties will have a bit higher chance of seeing some sunshine vs northern counties.
You can see those clouds on the early morning visible satellite imagery.
You can see the low over Minnesota. Clouds extend along the cold front into the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms along the east coast. Snow and ice in New England, as well.
See those clouds? Those are moving south southeast and will move back into the rest of the area over the coming hours.
Thicker clouds north vs south.
There will be a chance of sprinkles and flurries over the next couple of days.
The chances will be higher near the I64 corridor in southern Illinois vs areas farther south.
At this time, any snow accumulation would be light. The forecast is zero to a light dusting. Don’t expect much.
Rain totals would be less than 0.02″. Not much.
You can see those clouds rotating into the region on this animation. There is some debate about the extent of clouds Friday.
Sometimes, during the winter months, it can be difficult to scour out the clouds. They tend to linger.
The time on this animation is Zulu. 00Z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM. 12z=6 AM.
How far south the clouds remain Friday will need to be monitored.
A few clouds may linger into Saturday.
It is going to be colder over the coming days. Occasional wind gusts above 15 mph will make it feel colder.
Another weak system will spread into the Central United States Sunday night (late) into Monday. This will bring additional clouds to the area.
The system is forecast to weaken as it moves into our region. I can’t rule out some light rain or light snow showers with the disturbance. Perhaps even a wintry mix.
The chances of that occurring will be higher over southeast Missouri vs the rest of the region.
For now, I don’t expect any impacts. Monitor updates just in case some light freezing rain develops Monday morning. Especially over southeast Missouri.
Dry conditions Tuesday.
Another disturbance arrives Wednesday and Thursday.
Our long anticipated blast of cold air will push into the region towards the middle/end of next week.
That is going to be a bit of a shock to the system.
Wind chill values will dip below zero with this event. Actual air temperatures could struggle to push out of the 20s. Lows in the single digits and teens.
There could be a snow event, but confidence in precipitation remains low. Data is not in agreement on the snow portion of the forecast.
Data is in agreement that it will be cold.
It is going to be cold!
Let’s look at some guidance maps.
How cold will it be?
That will partly depend on snow cover. If we have snow on the ground, then lows in the single digits will likely occur. Perhaps even below zero.
Without snow, single digits and lower teens are likely.
The EC model is showing rain turning quickly to a wintry mix and snow. Light accumulation.
The GFS model shows almost no precipitation with this event.
Notice how tightly packed those black lines are? Those are isobars. Equal lines of pressure.
Isobars tightly packed together equal high wind gusts.
If we have strong wind gusts, then wind chill values could reach below negative ten towards the middle/end of next week.
Double brrr!
Green is rain. Pink/purple is a wintry mix. Blue is snow.
Look how fast temperatures fall. A flash freeze is likely.
Zulu time on this graphic. Time/date top left. Look how the cold air sweeps into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
EC model guidance temperature forecast for next Friday morning at 6 AM. Bitterly cold.
GFS model temperature forecast at 6 AM next Friday. No snow on the ground on this one.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 15th through December 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 22nd through December 28th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 27th through January 9th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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