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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A slight chance today and tonight. A slight chance Friday. A higher chance Sunday into Tuesday. A small chance Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. A few storm could produce locally heavy rain Monday and Monday night. The risk of flash flooding appears low.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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August 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a thunderstorm across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 92° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 92° / South IL 86° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° / West KY 88° to 92° / NW TN 88° to 92°
Winds will be from the: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:24 AM
Moonset: 7:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 26, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° / SE MO 86° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 86° to 90° / South IL 86° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° / West KY 86° to 90° / NW TN 86° to 90°
Winds will be from the: Light east wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:24 AM
Moonset: 7:40 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 27th, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:31 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 8:07 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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August 28th, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Winds will be from the: Light south wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Light south wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:29 AM
Moonset: 8:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 29th, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely after 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:31 AM
Moonset: 8:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday, August 30th, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° / SE MO 66° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 68° / South IL 66° to 68° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 68° / West KY 66° to 69° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:33 AM
Moonset: 9:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through August 31st: Not at this time.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances into Saturday.
- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday into Tuesday.
- Warm conditions.
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Weather advice:
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather radars.
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Weather Discussion
The primary weather story will be increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday into Tuesday.
Before that time, there will be isolated shower and thunderstorm chances today and tomorrow.,
Today’s activity will likely be confined across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Even that will be isolated.
The main concern will be lightning. Again, isolated chances.
It will be warm and humid today.
Highs will top out around 90 degrees.
Shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Friday night will be low. A couple of storms are possible. Primarily across southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be quite warm. Once again, around 90 degrees.
A trough of low pressure will push into the region Sunday into Tuesday.
That trough will help trigger showers and thunderstorms.
Peak chances will be Monday and Monday night. Scattered activity Sunday, Sunday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. Isolated chances Wednesday.
Monday and Monday night is when we will have peak moisture across the region.
Once again, some areas will likely not receive rain. Theme of the last three months. Others will pick up 0.50″ to 1.00″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.
Storms may produce gusty winds and lightning.
The threat of severe weather appears minimal.
It will be warm, when it isn’t raining. Humid, as well.
Here are some winter thoughts from our long range team.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
Double click on images to enlarge them.
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Early AM Energy Report.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
Double click this image to make it larger.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers August 25ththrough September 1st
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers September 2nd through September 8th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers September 6ththrough September 19th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
SUMMER OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Forecast
Temperatures
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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