Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

11:30 AM

No changes to the morning forecast.

Right now, we are just waiting for storms to develop.

We do have a few storms over northern portions of southeast Missouri.  They are moving northeast.

They will soon move into northern portions of southern Illinois.  I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorm warnings with these cells.

For now, they are below severe levels.

Next, we will wait for storms to form over southern Missouri and Arkansas.

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8:15 AM

The Memphis, TN NWS posted this.  This lines up with my thinking, as well.

I am watching clouds thin and clear in Arkansas.

Mobile homes are not safe during severe weather..

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8 AM Update

The Storm Prediction Center, in their 8 am update, did push the strong tornado risk back to the west-northwest.

Hatched means some tornadoes could be strong.

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7:45 AM Update

I’m watching some big numbers this afternoon regarding spin in the atmosphere.

6 PM graphic

These colors represent where the atmosphere will be turning.  That is called wind shear.  Wind shear is the turning of wind direction with height.  Winds also become stronger with height.

7 PM graphic

This lines up with the SPC tornado threat zone.

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7 AM update

The only thing throwing me off this morning is cloud cover.

I am leaning towards two lines of storms.

One line forms during the late morning/early afternoon from near Mt Vernon northward into central Indiana.

Then, a second area of supercells or lines will be form across southern MO and northern/central AR. That will be the one that impacts most of us.

Cloud cover remains a question and a key part of this severe weather forecast.

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6 AM Update

We have a risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight.  Another risk on Wednesday and Thursday.  I am monitoring Friday and Saturday.

Heavy rain is likely this week, as well.

Review your severe weather safety plans.

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Here is the forecast from the SPC.  They could upgrade this to a level four if confidence increases.

Cloud cover could help dampen instability and that would save us from a bigger event.  We will just need to monitor it.

Tornado outlook.  Hatched means strong tornadoes are possible.

Wind outlook.

Hail outlook.  Hatched means very large hail is possible.

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Here is the latest graphic from the NWS in Paducah, KY.

Keep in mind that these times may need adjusting.  This is a general idea of what we are expecting.

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You can see quite a few clouds to our west with a complex of thunderstorms over central Missouri into northern Arkansas.

How this will influence storms later today will need to be monitored.

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Here is the latest six-day rainfall outlook.  Most of this will fall from Wednesday into Saturday.  These are some big numbers.  Let’s hope this does not verify.

This is a concern for flooding.  It will be drawn out over several days.

Additional severe weather is possible on Wednesday.
.And Thursday8:30 AM UpdateWe have a risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night.  The primary concern will be 3 PM to 3 AM.  Adjustments in the timing are possible if storms form ahead of the primary line.The concern will be very large hail, damaging wind, and even a few tornadoes.Threat matrix..Now is the time to review your severe weather safety plans.  Make sure your safe place is prepared.This could be an overnight event for some counties.  Keep your keys and wallet near your bed.  Keep your shoes and boots near your bed.  Have a flashlight, as well.I recommend having helmets in your safe place, as well.  For babies, have an infant car seat.

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Make sure your weather radio is on.  Make sure your devices are charged and not muted.

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Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

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