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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
48-hour forecast
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Sunday to Sunday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Chances are low Monday and Monday night. I can’t rule out lightning Tuesday and Wednesday. I will keep an eye on the weekend as, well. A cold front should push across the area Saturday and Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am closely monitoring a frontal passage Thursday/Thursday night and another one Saturday/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible along these fronts. I can’t rule out severe weather. For now, confidence is low.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. There will be a chance of locally heavy rain over the coming days. Rain totals could exceed three inches across portions of the region. That would be more likely south vs north. Along the MO/AR and KY/TN border. These rain events are drawn out over several days. I can’t rule out areal flooding, if the rain is heavy enough. Monitor updates.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast. Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines? Not at this time. A
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Sunday, December 04, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of sleet or snow over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. Otherwise, some clearing as the day wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated far south
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast becoming southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Thickening clouds from south to north. I chance of late night showers near the MO/AR and KY/TN border. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late at night (far south)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:34 PM
Moonset: 3:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Monday, December 05, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. A thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered far north becoming widespread as you move farther south.
Timing of the precipitation: Throughout the day.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous far north to widespread far south.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 3:02 PM
Moonset: 4:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming North northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:34 PM
Moonset: 5:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered north to numerous far south.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming North northeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Widespread rain. A thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:34 PM
Moonset: 5:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few strong storms will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 7:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Friday, December 09, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Higher chances during the morning vs afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 5:44 PM
Moonset: 8:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, December 10, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? LOW Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 6:38 PM
Moonset: 9:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through December 12th: At this time, the risk of severe weather appears low Monday through Friday. I am watching a cold frontal passage Thursday and then again Saturday or Sunday. If there was a bit more instability, then severe weather could occur. I will keep a close eye on it and update accordingly.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.
- Rain chances throughout the week.
- Rain totals will be higher south vs north.
- Changeable forecasts based on the placement of a stationary front. Any deviation from its forecasted position will cause forecast changes.
- Monitor mid to late month cold waves.
Weather advice:
Monitor the forecast over the coming weeks. An active weather pattern is developing. There could be time periods where severe weather will be in the forecast. Locally heavy rain is also a concern.
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Current Weather Discussion
It has been a difficult forecast over the past few days. There are a lot of moving parts to the upcoming forecast, as well.
The primary concern will be a stalled front boundary that will drape itself across our region. This frontal band will have ripples of energy (upper level disturbances) move across it.
Each disturbance will increase rain chances. When the disturbance moves away, then rain chances decrease.
This will be the case through much of the week into the weekend.
Two cold front are forecast to move across the region. One Thursday and then another Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures and precipitation totals will vary greatly from north to south. Mt Vernon will be cooler this week than say Murray, Kentucky.
Rain totals will vary from less than 0.50″ across our far northern counties to over two inches across the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee.
The exact location of the frontal boundary will determine rain totals.
Let me show you some examples of anticipated rain totals.
You can see how difficult the overall forecast is going to be. If the front pushes 20 miles farther south or north, then rain totals in your locations would change.
I am threading the needle on the going forecast! Adjustments can’t be ruled out.
Here is the chance of lightning. As you can see, there will be on and off lightning chances into the weekend.
Double click animations to enlarge them.
Total precipitation from the blend of models. This takes us into the weekend.
As you can see the blend of models is quite wet! We need this rain. Perhaps not all at once, but we will take whatever nature sends.
Let’s take a look at what the WPC is forecasting for rain totals.
This is the 48 hour precipitation totals map. This takes us through Tuesday 6 AM. More south vs north. That will be the theme over the coming week.
Let’s look at the rain totals through 6 AM December 9th (this coming Friday)
What does all of the above mean?
It means a wet week for the region. It won’t rain all of the time everywhere. There will be waves of precipitation moving across the region.
If you have outdoor plans, then you will want to closely monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
See the detailed daily forecast at the top of the page for each region. The rain probabilities may need adjusting if the front wavers north or south.
Severe Weather Outlook
At this time, the risk of severe weather today through Wednesday night appears low.
I am closely watching Thursday and Thursday night.
A cold front will advance from west to east. There will be strong wind shear with this frontal passage. Instability is the question.
Will there be enough CAPE for severe weather? That is the question. Think of CAPE as energy that thunderstorms feed on.
Often times, during the autumn and winter months, we have strong wind shear but little or no CAPE. It doesn’t take much CAPE for there to be problems.
I am going to watch Thursday for a marginal or slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
Here are some GFS model maps.
EHI. Spin in the atmosphere. You can see that we have some spin in the atmosphere Thursday. Spin alone does not equal severe weather. It is just one ingredient.
The model shows the supercell composite peaking over our region. If there is enough CAPE, then severe weather could develop. For now, confidence is low.
Here is the CAPE map. Surface based CAPE. There are different types of CAPE.
Surface based CAPE is what produces most of our severe weather. You can have mid-level CAPE. That can often times help produce hail.
I am also watching Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will advance across the region during this time period.
I can’t rule out strong thunderstorms, but confidence is low.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 2nd through December 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 9th through December 16th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 16th through December 29th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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