September 9, 2024: Tracking a tropical disturbance. Warming trend.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely Thursday through at least Sunday. I will monitor next Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am tracking a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. It will move into our region late this week into the weekend. Occasionally, these type of systems can produce short-lived tornadoes on the east side of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am tracking a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. It will move into our region late this week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain is likely along the path of low pressure. Drought conditions could help mitigate flooding issues. With that said, if the rain is heavier than expected then flash flooding will be possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Some strong wind gusts are possible Thursday night into Friday night. The odds are that the gusts will remain below 40 mph, but I will keep an eye on it.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday: 5. Medium risk.
Monday night: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Use caution with dry vegetation. Some counties have burn bans. Check with your local emergency management office.

High pressure is set to bring dry weather conditions through mid week. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon through Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH values will drop into the 20-30% range today and Tuesday. Some localized areas may see RH`s drop into the 15-20% range this afternoon. Winds will be light through much of this week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Rain probabilities may be higher Thursday night into Saturday. This is highly dependent on the track of the tropical system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: Light east wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:48 PM
Moonset: 10:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 86° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 86° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:10 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 11:02 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 92°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 92°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 92°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 92°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:53 PM
Moonset: 11:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. I will monitor the tornado threat.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:07 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. I will monitor the tornado threat.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 3:49 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 75° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM

Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:39 PM
Moonset: 12:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 2:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:57 PM
Moonset: 3:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warmer temperatures Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
2. Fire concerns into Wednesday. Avoid burning brush.
3. Increasing clouds mid to late week.
4. Tracking a tropical disturbance moving through the Gulf of Mexico.
5. Rain chances are increasing.
6. Locally heavy rain possible. I will monitor the tornado risk, as well.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Wow, we had an amazing weekend. Autumn-like weather. I hope you were able to enjoy it.

I even raked some leaves! Leaves on some of my trees are dying because the ground is so dry. A bit early for raking leaves, but here we are.

Sunday morning was quite chilly across the region. Temperatures were mostly in the 40s. A few reporting stations dipped into the upper 30s. A few reporting stations only dipped into the lower 50s. It is odd to see the range of temperatures in our region.

Both Paducah and Cape Girardeau recorded record lows.

Valley’s tend to be colder. We also have cold favored spots.

Here were the 6 am Sunday morning Kentucky temperatures

Regional temperatures. Double click to enlarge the image.

There was plenty of sunshine Sunday, as well. A nice late summer morning. I am sure some of you had coffee on your porch and enjoyed the nicer temperatures.

Monday morning was chilly, as well. A few stations dipped below 40 degrees.

Check this out. Portions of western Kentucky dipped into the 30s.

Check out Graves County at 6 am.

Portions of the region will have smokey sky conditions today. The smoke is coming from Canada. They are once again experiencing wildfires. This smoke has drifted south southeast into our region.

Here is an animation of the smoke. This is for today.

The only weather concerns through Wednesday will be an enhanced risk of wildfires. Avoid burning leaves, brush, and fields.

Low humidity and dry vegetation is the reason for concern. There have been numerous fires in the region over the past few weeks.

Winds are too light for red flag warnings (fire warnings). But, that doesn’t take away from the risk.

Some counties also have burn bans in effect. Check with your local emergency management officials.

Drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. Some areas have received little or no rain over the past six weeks. A rare occurrence in our region.

It is very dry. A few counties have received rain. Many have not.

Topsoil moisture is in severe drought. You can see that on this graphic.

I do have some good news. It appears that rain is on the way. Perhaps widespread rain.

I always tell you that a summer rainfall wildcard are the tropics. A tropical storm or hurricane moving into our region from the Gulf of Mexico. These can bring substantial, soaking, and widespread rain.

That is what will happen this week.

A tropical system is developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

You can see it on satellite.

The National Hurricane Center Is forecasting the system to become a category one hurricane and move ashore in northeast Texas or Louisiana.

It’s name will be Francine. There remain questions about the exact track and intensity.

This is the message from the NHC.

This the current track. You can see a wide cone in our region. This is where the center is expected to track. Notice the range extends from western Missouri to eastern Kentucky.

The track of the center is key to rainfall totals. It is also key to where severe weather could develop.

You can see that system on this GFS model animation.

Data, over the past 48 hours, has been merging on a solution that brings Francine into the Missouri, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys.

This system is still several days away. I will need to monitor trends in the guidance.

The WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook brings rain into our region Thursday into the weekend. Their outlook has been steady over the last couple of days. Small adjustments west and east. Overall, looks about the same as yesterday. That does add some confidence to the forecast.

Here is the latest rainfall outlook. Over the coming days, let’s watch trends on this graphic. There could still be shifts east or west.

The exact track of the system will be key to the higher rainfall totals. There could also be severe weather along its path. This will depend on the strength of the low pressure center.

This is the best chance of widespread rainfall that our region has seen in quite some time.

Tropical systems can sometimes deliver pockets of much higher totals.

Let’s look at some models.

The following two animations are the GFS and EC model twelve-hour rainfall totals.

You can see how the system tracks per those two models.

GFS model twelve-hour rainfall totals animation. This shows the path the GFS model believes the system will take.

EC model twelve-hour rainfall totals animation. This shows the path the EC model believes the system will take.

Let’s look at rainfall totals. This won’t be exact, but you get the general idea.

GFS model. Double click images to enlarge them.

EC model. EC model lingers the system a bit longer. Thus, totals are a bit higher.

The Storm Prediction Center has already mentioned a tornado threat.

Here is what they said in their morning update.

Model forecasts suggest that the tornado threat could shift northward into the Tennessee Valley on Friday. On Saturday, uncertainty is considerable concerning the location of any tropical cyclone remnants. If current solutions are reasonably close, then a tornado threat would be possible in the Southeast, potentially from the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.

Monitor updates over the coming days. I am hopeful this system will bring rain into our forecast area.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.