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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday night – Becoming cloudy. Warm. Showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely from west to east over the region. Locally heavy rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps some of you will have to. Rain and storms are moving in from the west.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Increasing rain chances from west to east. Increasing to 70% by Wednesday morning.
What impact is expected? Some locally heavy downpours and lightning are the main concern.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers likely. Some thunderstorms. A few pockets of locally heavy rain possible. Some will miss out on the rain all together.
Temperatures: Highs in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps some of you will have to. Rain and storms are moving in from the west.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Increasing rain chances from west to east. Increasing to 70% by Wednesday morning.
What impact is expected? Some locally heavy downpours and lightning are the main concern.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph possible becoming northwest as a front moves through the region
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Some rain is expected.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% (mainly early)
What impact is expected? Some showers. Maybe a rumble of thunder.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for scattered showers. Showers tapering off from the northwest to southeast through the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s
Winds: Northwest and north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% Tapering off to the southeast through the day.
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday night – Decreasing clouds. Perhaps an evening shower for our far southeastern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Nothing major
Friday – Becoming cloudy with a chance for some showers and rain as a second cold front sweeps through the region. Perhaps a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a few showers are possible as the second cold front arrives.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% chance
What impact is expected? Some rain and maybe a rumble of thunder. No severe weather.
Friday night – Partly to mostly cloudy with some lingering showers possible. Much cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph perhaps some gusts to 15 mph at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe some showers around.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% for an evening shower
What impact is expected? Nothing major
Saturday – Some clouds. Windy at times. A chance for a few light showers. Nice temperatures. Low humidity.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Perhaps a few middle 70’s far south.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 2o mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe a couple of light showers in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance
What impact is expected? No real problems.
Saturday night – Nice. Fall like. Mostly clear. Great camping weather or great weather to sleep with the windows open.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s north to lower 50’s elsewhere
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Some fair weather cumulus clouds possible. Beautiful. Low humidity levels.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph becoming variable towards evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s north to lower 50’s elsewhere
Winds: Southeast and variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 70’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Maybe another shot at rain towards the middle and end of next week.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A cold front is approaching the region from the northwest
2. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday.
3. Second cold front on Friday could produce some more showers
4. Big cool down by next weekend! It should feel more like fall by Friday into Sunday.
Well, all good things much come to an end. The same is true for summer. We did reach 90 degrees on Tuesday over much of the area. But, could this be our last 90 degree temperature until next spring? Perhaps. We do have some more warm shots in the long range forecast. But, it will become increasingly more difficult to reach 90 degrees. Climatology would state as much. We aren’t finished with the 80’s.
What we are finished with for awhile is the warm and humid conditions. Two strong cold fronts will usher in fallish air to the region. The first front arrives on Wednesday and the second front arrives on Friday.
The first front will produce the best rain chances for the week. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to push south and east into the area on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
The precipitation will first arrive over our northwest counties and then slide southeast.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday evening will push into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Precipitation might take a little longer to push into western Kentucky or our eastern counties. A bit more dry air in place over those locations. Keep that in mind. This is more typical of a fall cold front than a summer one. It will then track southeast through the morning and afternoon hours. Reaching the Land Between the Lakes area last.
We need rain. Let’s hope this system can produce 0.30″-0.60″ of precipitation. Locally heavy rain (bigger amounts) a good bet. My concern is that the charts show the band weakening some tomorrow morning as it moves into Kentucky. The best chance for the heavier rain totals might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. I can not promise that a few spots won’t miss out on rain. But, the good news is that this does appear to be our best chance in quite some time for measurable rainfall. Fingers crossed. We need it.
Let’s look at the weatherbell.com WRF model. Precipitation is actually moving in a bit faster this evening than even this model shows. But, you do get the general idea of what to expect from these graphics. The colors represent rain and storms.
This first graphic is for around 1 am on Wednesday morning. You can see the precipitation shield continuing to push into our region.
This next image is for around 3 or 4 am Wednesday morning
This next image is for around 7 am to 9 am’ish on Wednesday morning
This next image is for around 11 am to 1 pm on Wednesday
And finally, one more image. This is for Wednesday evening around 7 pm. You can see the bigger shield of rain has moved away. Some lingering showers are still in the area. We will see how it goes. These future-cast models aren’t always exactly spot on. But, the general idea should hold.
Cooler air will push into the region by Wednesday night and Thursday. Highs by Thursday will still be in the lower 80’s to perhaps some middle 80’s. By Friday, however, and the weekend I am thinking we remain in the 70’s for daytime high temperatures. Overnight lows by Friday and Saturday will drip into the 50’s over many counties. Coolish air. Window opening air. Low humidity air. Any complaints? 🙂
The second cold front on Friday could produce some light showers in the region. If this does occur then it would likely be Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Right now the chance for precipitation appears much lower than cold front number one. Perhaps in the 20%-40% rain for probabilities. I will keep an eye on it. Some data keeps it dry.
The weekend is currently forecast to remain dry and I believe early next week will remain dry. A stronger storm system or two is indicated later next week and the following week. A lot of time to monitor that subject.
Don’t forget, as a reminder, that we often have severe weather during the fall months. It is not uncommon to have severe thunderstorms and tornadoes as the seasons change. This is because of a much strong jet stream in the fall and winter vs summer. Summer is typically our slow month for weather. Fall and spring our the active severe weather months. A lot of people forecast that. It is important to remember.
Check out the high temperature forecast for Wednesday into Sunday. I think these numbers will make you smile.
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
In the long range. I am watching the warm waters in the Pacific. Just look at all of this red. Those are above normal temperature anomalies for the Pacific Ocean. In my lifetime I have never witnessed waters this warm over such a large area. It is incredible. It will absolutely impact our winter forecast. But, the question is how? There are many many opinions on this. I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Expect pockets of 0.30″-0.60″ of rain from Tuesday night into Thursday. A thunderstorm could produce locally heavy rain (always the case). I can’t completely rule out the possibility that some areas will miss out on the rain. Hopefully, not.
Some places could see much larger amounts if precipitation trains over the same area. In excess of 1″
WPC actually shows a lot more rain over some of our counties. I can’t discount these numbers. I went a bit more conservative on my numbers. But, our northwest counties should have the best bet for the heavier totals. Let’s hope we can pull this off. We need the rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE/TWO on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Severe weather risk appears minimal/tiny.
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Wednesday: Thunderstorms are likely. Not expecting widespread severe weather concerns.
Thursday: Thunderstorms are still possible on Thursday, as well.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday night. It does not appear that the severe weather risk is great with this particular system. Tiny chances that a storm or two could produce some strong winds.
The main concern this week will be lightning. Secondary concerns would be brief heavy rainfall. And then perhaps some gusty winds with thunderstorms. The risk for severe weather is very small.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
