We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
.
Sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent
.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Thursday Graphic-cast
Thursday night
September 8, 2016
Thursday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increasing chances from the north and west. Better chances as we move into the afternoon hours.
What impact is expected? Heat index values above 96 degrees. Wet roadways and lightning possible. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 1:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:37 p.m. Waxing Crescent
.
There remains some question about how far south to push the heavy rain potential on Thursday night.
Thursday Night – Mostly cloudy warm and muggy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible. Heavy downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 2-4 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
.
September 9, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected? Heat index values above 94 degrees. Wet roadways and lightning possible. Downpours in storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radar updates
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 1:56 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. First Quarter
.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
.
September 10, 2016
Saturday: Quite a few clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Questionable on how much coverage.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning possible. brief downpours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-86 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a couple of strong storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5. Low to moderate.
Moonrise will be at 2:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 p.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Saturday Night – Decreasing clouds. Less humid. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should be over by Saturday night.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
.
September 11, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 3:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 12, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 4:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
.
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Increasing thunderstorm chances
- Cold front arrives on Saturday
- Questions on precipitation coverage for Saturday
- Cooler and drier air for Saturday night into Monday
- Another cold front next week. More cool air.
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
Thursday afternoon high temperature map
Friday morning low temperatures
Friday afternoon high temperature
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Wednesday night: Isolated storm possible.
Thursday and Thursday night: Increasing chances for thunderstorms from the north. Heavy rain is possible. Isolated flash flood risk.
Friday through Sunday: Some storms are likely on Friday. Locally heavy rain and strong storms possible. A new cold front moves into the region. Organized storms are possible along the front. Timing of the front is still a bit questionable. Perhaps the best rain chances will arrive on Saturday. Monitor updates.
.
.
No major shifts in the forecast.
.
.
Main concern for outdoor events will be lightning. A few storms possible as we move into Thursday and Thursday night. More storms possible Friday (small chance). Good chance for storms on Saturday as a cold front moves through the area. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. A few locally strong storms can’t be ruled out from Thursday into Saturday afternoon.
Rainfall could be heavy on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Some spots could top two inches of rain.
.
..
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
