September 6, 2024: Cool weekend ahead. Warmer weather returns next week.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? ISOLATED. Isolated lightning is possible today.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 5. Medium risk.
Saturday night: 5. Medium risk.
Sunday: 5. Medium risk.

The fire risk may increase Saturday through Monday with low humidity levels.

Fire Weather Discussion

Use caution with dry vegetation. Some counties have burn bans. Check with your local emergency management office.

A cold front will move through today with low chances of wetting rain. Winds will switch around to the northwest through the afternoon and may have a few gusts to 20 mph across Illinois and Missouri. Breezy conditions will continue on Saturday with RH values dropping into the 30 to 35 percent range. As temperatures warm up Sunday through Tuesday minimum RH values will drop into the 20-30% range. Some locations may drop down to 15% on Monday. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday and Sunday and may persist through Tuesday, although winds will fairly light after Saturday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Rain probabilities today. Fairly low. Scattered showers and storms.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly this afternoon and evening.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 86° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset: 8:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 73° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM

Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:44 AM
Moonset: 9:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 7:13 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Some data shows colder temperatures than shown below.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:45 AM
Moonset: 9:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:48 PM
Moonset: 10:19 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm today.
2. A cold front pushes across the region tonight.
3. Isolated showers and storms today and this evening. Most areas will remain dry.
4. Heightened fire danger this weekend.
5. Hot weather returns mid to late next week.
6. Drought conditions will worsen.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

A strong cold front will move into the region today and tonight. This system is moisture starved. A few showers will develop along the front. Perhaps a clap of thunder, but no severe weather. Many areas will simply remain dry.

Here was the 6 am St Louis, Missouri radar snapshot. Not much. A few showers were indicated by the radar.

Most of the green on this map is ground clutter (birds, insects, other). I drew some arrows to show you where there was some scattered showers.

See the future-cast radars farther down in the blog update.

The drought will worsen. Burn bans will become more numerous. The September outlook is for below average precipitation. Again, bad news for those needing rain.

Avoid burning leaves, brush, and fields if at all possible. Especially in areas that have not received rain for weeks.

There will be an enhanced risk of fires Saturday through Monday. This will be because of low humidity levels, gusty wind, and very dry vegetation.

Here are the latest drought monitor maps. These were updated yesterday morning.

Many counties have now been rated D1. That is moderate drought. These drought monitor maps are for longer term drought conditions. The top soil is actually in severe drought in many areas.

Double click on the maps to enlarge them.

What we need is a tropical system to move our way with a widespread slow soaking rain. That isn’t in the cards, yet.

Double click the rainfall outlook to enlarge it. This is through next Wednesday.

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Check out these low temperature maps for Saturday morning.

Sunday morning. Some data even shows upper 30s to lower 40s.

Monday morning low temperatures.

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Check out the high temperatures, as well.

Saturday high temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

Monday high temperatures

Warmer weather returns mid to late next week with widespread 80s and even some 90s.

There aren’t strong signals for widespread soaking rains. We need some sort of tropical system to push up from the Gulf of Mexico. Something that brings a widespread rain event.

The GFS model occasionally shows a system late next week. A long shot, but something to monitor.

I will be attending the National Weather Association convention in Dallas late next week/weekend.

The EC model also shows that system.

The GFS ensembles (multiple models ran at the same time) show low chances of an inch of rain through the 17th.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.