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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
Tuesday Graphic-Cast
September 6, 2016
Tuesday: Sunny. Hot and humid. An isolated storm possible.
What impact is expected? Heat index values above 96 degrees.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. I will be monitoring for heat of the day storms.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:14 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 11:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:19 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Tuesday Night – A few evening clouds. Otherwise, clear. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 7, 2016
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance for a heat of the day thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Heat index values above 96 degrees. Maybe lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? I will be monitoring for heat of the day storms.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 12:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 8, 2016
Thursday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Heat index values above 96 degrees. Maybe lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? I will be monitoring for heat of the day storms.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 1:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:37 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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September 9, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Heat index values above 94 degrees. Wet roadways and lightning possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? I will be monitoring for heat of the day storms.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 1:56 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m. First Quarter
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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September 10, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-86 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 2:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 p.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Some clouds. Less humid. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-64 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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September 11, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 3:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Hot and muggy weather returns
- Isolated thunderstorm chances
- New cold front this coming weekend!
- Another cold front middle of next week.
I hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend. There were a couple of showers that popped up on Sunday afternoon over western Kentucky. The vast majority of the region remained dry. A few more storms popped up on Monday.
As you can tell, higher dew points have returned. The air feels muggy again. Dew points have jumped into the 70’s. Our nice weather (unless you enjoy heat and humidity) has come to an end. The great news is that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Cooler air and less humid air is already showing up in the charts for this coming weekend and next week. Will this be our last solid week of heat and humidity? It is a possibility.
I can’t rule out widely scattered thunderstorms Tuesday into Thursday. The chances, however, will be fairly low. I will give it a less than twenty percent chance. A couple of storms on radar from time to time.
Precipitation chances will increase on Friday and Saturday. This will happen ahead of a cold front. A few of the storms could be strong. I am hoping the front will exit by Saturday night. That would leave Sunday dry. There remains some questions on the timing of the cold front. Keep that in mind. Check back for updates.
Here is the Saturday weather map. Cold front to our west on Saturday morning. T his front sweeps eastward through the day. A band of showers and storms will accompany the front.
Cooler air will return behind the cold front. It will feel pleasant outside. A stronger front is possible next week. Have we moved into a fall pattern? It certainly appears to be a possibility. Fall normally delivers more cold fronts.
Here are the temperature anomalies for Tuesday. Red means above normal temperatures. Compare that to next Sunday. Look at all the blue. That means below normal temperatures by the weekend. Highs may not get out of the 70’s on Sunday. Next high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. Normal low temperatures are in the lower 60’s.
Above is Tuesday
Below is Sunday
I always remind people that fall is our second peak time of the year for severe thunderstorms. This is especially true of October and November. Keep that in the back of your mind.
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
Tuesday afternoon high temperature map
Wednesday morning low temperatures
Wednesday afternoon high temperature
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday through Thursday: Isolated storm possible.
Friday through Sunday: A new cold front moves into the region. Organized storms are possible along the front. Timing of the front is still a bit questionable. Perhaps the best rain chances will arrive on Saturday. Monitor updates.
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No major shifts in the forecast.
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Heat index values will pop back up above 96 degrees over the coming days. Maybe some patch fog.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
