September 3, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Rain chances Friday night into Sunday will vary GREATLY north to south. See the detailed hand typed forecast for more information.

48-hour forecast

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Friday to Friday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Friday into Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I will keep an eye on Saturday. A couple of intense storms are possible.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Sunday.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

September 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 5% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (low chance)
Timing of the rain: During the PM hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. More likely late at night vs earlier in the night. The chance of rain will be highest from Bollinger County, Missouri east/northeast into Jackson County, Illinois, and then east towards Evansville, Indiana. Along and north of that line is where the chances will be highest. Lower chances as you move further south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated south becoming numerous north/northwest portion of the region.
Timing of the rain: More likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:37 AM
Moonset: 5:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 84° / South IL 78° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 6:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher as you travel south vs north. The front will be moving south. Precipitation ending north to south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north to numerous far south.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog. Any remaining showers will move off to the south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Ending
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways over our far southern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:44 AM
Moonset: 7:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:51 AM
Moonset: 7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: New

September 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. A slight chance of wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:59 AM
Moonset: 8:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through September 7th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms could be intense Saturday with strong and gusty winds.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Monitoring the weekend weather.
2. Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Friday night into Sunday (WIDE variety of weather for the weekend from north to south).
3. Monitoring a cold front next Wednesday

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

We will have to deal with a cold front this weekend. This is going to wreck havoc with outdoor activities.

The biggest forecast headache is the timing of rain for any given point in the region.

There will likely be some showers and thunderstorms on radar tonight across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Then, as we move through Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday the cold front will push further and further south.

As the front pushes south, so does the increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

It is difficult for me to tell you to cancel any weekend plans. I know it is a holiday weekend. The best advice would be to have a plan B in case showers and thunderstorms interrupt your activities. Then, you will be prepared.

I can’t promise you X hours will be dry vs X time will be wet. The nature of this front is that it will be draped west to east across our region and precipitation will likely develop and train over the same areas.

Locally heavy rain is possible. We are in a slight risk of flash flooding. A level two out of five risk. That has been issued by NOAA/WPC.

Some locations will easily pick up one to two inches of rain. If thunderstorms train repeatedly over the same counties then some locations could top three inches. It will be that kind of system. Meanwhile, it would not surprise me (once again) if some locations did not receive much in the way of measurable rain. Same as recent months.

We have been in this pattern since June. A fairly typical summer pattern. Feast or famine is what I call it.

Here is the excessive rainfall outlook. Green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk.

That simply means that some of the rain may be excessive.

Avoid flooded roadways if they develop.

The system will push further south Sunday. That will end the rain north to south. There will still be precipitation in the region Sunday. Keep that in mind. It will be ending north to south as the front pushes through the region.

Monday through Thursday currently appears dry. A weak cold front will push through the region Tuesday afternoon and night. It will be moisture starved. Perhaps a few clouds and a light shower, at most. I placed a 10% chance in the zone forecast at the top of the page.

Otherwise, nothing of note. It will remain mild through the week.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.