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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy. Some showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% best chance southern half of the region
What impact is expected? Maybe some lightning.
Tuesday – Cloudy with periods of rain likely. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain could cause problems with outdoor events.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
What impact is expected? Lightning can’t be ruled out
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – Some clouds. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Wind gusting to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and turning cooler. Small chance for showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 70’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% mainly early
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Clearing and cooler. Pleasant night for the windows to be open.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Mostly sunny and cool. Fall like.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear early. Autumn weather. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday – Partly sunny. Pleasant. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday night – Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday – Partly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Some clouds possible. Otherwise, cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Some clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Will it finally rain? It appears that it will
2. A cold front arrives on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
3. Colder air for much of the new work week into early next week. Some days may not get out of the 60’s.
4. Small rain chances over the weekend.
5. October outlook is for below normal temperatures
Rain! Or so it would appear. There remains a lot of disagreement on how much rain will fall with this system and how far north and west to place the rain shield. But, there is agreement that we should see quite a bit of precipitation on radar by Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Severe weather is not anticipated.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
There is little to no agreement in the guidance on rainfall totals. I have gone with 0.30″-0.60″ of rain for areas mentioned above. Less north of the line mentioned above. Some model guidance indicates 1″-2″ of rain for parts of the Missouri Bootheel into far far southern Illinois and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee. This seems a bit overdone.
Let me tell you the actual model range. I have seen some models paint around 0.10″-0.30″ for west Kentucky all the way up to in excess of 4″ of rain for western Kentucky. So, when I see there is disagreement in the data 🙂 Well, that tells you all you need to know!
Tomorrow is likely going to be a day to take an umbrella to work with you.
It has been awhile since I was excited about the weather. Funny how a long dry spell will do that to a meteorologist. I am happy that some of you will finally pick up some much needed rain.
There is a cold front moving into the region from the north. It will be a bit of rain with the trough and the moisture.
The next big weather story will be much cooler air that will start to filter into the region as early as Tuesday night, but will be in full force by Wednesday night into early next week.
Gusty winds will accompany the front on Wednesday. Expect some 10-20 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph.
I suspect many areas will dip into the 40’s on Thursday morning into Sunday morning. Some data paints lower 50’s for far southeast Missouri into western Kentucky vs the 40’s to the north of there. Either way, much cooler air. Expect numerous days with high temperatures in the 60’s to lower 70’s. This will be the coolest air of the season, thus far.
Let’s take a look at the GFS low temperature forecasts. These numbers might be a little too cool, but give you an idea of the air mass moving into our region.
The blue colors in our region represent 40’s to lower 50’s. These maps are from weatherbell.com Click the images for a better view of the numbers
Thursday morning low temperatures
Thursday afternoon high temperatures
Friday morning low temperatures
Friday afternoon high temperatures
Saturday morning low temperatures
Saturday afternoon high temperatures
Sunday morning low temperatures
Sunday afternoon high temperatures
A weak system may approach our region on Saturday and Sunday (from the west). I can’t completely rule out some clouds and a few showers. For now, I am going to keep the weekend dry. But, I am going to watch the trends.
The next rain producer may not arrive until the middle of next week. Long way off for that forecast. Plenty of time to monitor.
I am forecasting a colder than normal October. More days with below normal temperatures than above normal temperatures. Rainfall is a tough one. If we can finally push a pattern shift then I could see a few cold fronts sparking showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. But, that pattern shift is still in its early phases on the charts. I want to continue to monitor the trends. My current thinking is near normal precipitation. But, with our history over the past month…I have to pause and be a bit skeptical. I would like to see the pattern shift start showing up in the long range charts. Right now, that has yet to happen.
Let’s look at the GFS temperature anomalies as we move into October. The blue and green represent below normal temperatures. This first map is for September 30th through October 5th. Those green colors represent much below normal temperatures.
This next map is pushing a bit further into October. This map is through October 8th. These are the temperature anomalies. Red is above normal and blue/green represents below normal temperatures.
If you read yesterday’s blog post then you will remember that a ridge of high pressure over western Canada typically means cooler than normal air for our region. Here is the 500 mb map (18,000′ aloft). The red indicates a ridge of high pressure. Notice where that is located? That spells cooler air for our region.
Is this how the winter will set up? If so then we can expect a lot of cold air.
A great sunset photograph from Tony Crouch. Paducah, Kentucky.
Are you interested in becoming a severe weather spotter? We need more spotters.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
What? It’s finally going to rain? Yes! It would appear it is finally going to rain. There remain some questions about how far north and west to take the rain shield.
Widespread rain is possible by Monday night into Tuesday evening. There is quite a spread in rainfall totals on the models. But, I think much of far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee will pick up 0.30″-0.60″ of rain. Some data paints 1″-2″ over parts of our area. The heaviest totals on the models are showing up over far southern Illinois into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. We can hope for larger amounts.
Some thunder is possible with this event. Not expecting any severe weather.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE for Monday night and Tuesday. Some thunder possible.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Some roads may become slick once the rain begins. The amount of oil that has built up on roadways mixing with rain water can be a problem.
I can’t rule out some locally heavy downpours on Tuesday. Especially over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
