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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday – Patchy morning fog. A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for some showers. Humid air.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We could have some showers in the region
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%. Perhaps the best chances over parts of southeast Missouri and then Kentucky/Tennessee. Precipitation should move in from the south and southwest.
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy. Some showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% best chance southern half of the region
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Cloudy with showers likely. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain could cause problems with outdoor events.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80% Best chances the southern 2/3 of the region.
What impact is expected? Lightning can’t be ruled out
Tuesday night – Some clouds. A chance for showers. Turning colder as a cold front approaches the region from the north.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph. Wind gusting to 15 mph. Winds switching to the north and northwest over our far northern counties towards morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and turning cooler as a cold front moves in from the north. Small chance for showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: North/northeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% mainly early
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Clearing and cooler. Pleasant night for the windows to be open.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50’s. Some counties could dip into the 40’s if the front does indeed push south.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Cooler. Pleasant/nice.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear early. Autumn weather. Perhaps some clouds late. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday – Partly sunny. Pleasant. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
A cool weekend appears on tap with highs in the 70’s. Lows on Saturday and Sunday morning will likely be in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. I increased rain chances a bit for Monday into Tuesday.
2. A cold front arrives Tuesday into Tuesday night.
3. Potential for quite a bit cooler air (maybe some overnight lows into the 40’s)
4. Watching a system for the weekend. But, low confidence on the outcome.
5. What about October?
Some of you picked up a few showers on Sunday, nothing major. Enough to wet the grass and car. Thick clouds helped keep temperatures mostly in the 70’s.
The big news in the forecast is that I have increased rain chances for Monday into Tuesday. It now appears that moisture will spread northward on both Monday and Tuesday. This will be in advance of a cold front that will push in from the north on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
The end result will be showers and some thunderstorms developing on Monday into Tuesday. Perhaps the best chances for rain will be on Tuesday.
There is LOWER than normal confidence on how this plays out. There has been little agreement in the model guidance about how much rain will spread northward. I have gone back and forth trying to figure this out.
Today’s data does increase the chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday. As a matter of fact, some data indicates widespread rainfall. I increased the % numbers several notches higher. The Tuesday forecast might need to be adjusted even higher if the NAM model is correct. I just don’t have enough confidence to go with widespread rainfall, yet.
Assuming the data is correct, some places could pick up more than 0.25″ of rain. Models even paint up to 1″-2″ of rain for parts of far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. Perhaps far southern Illinois. The models showing the heavier totals are in the minority. For now, at least. Let’s keep watching. I will update accordingly as new data arrives.
Let’s look at two different models and how much rain they are predicting. These images are from weatherbell.com
This is the NAM model. It is the most bullish with rainfall totals. Click image for a larger view.
The orange and red colors in our area would represent more than an inch of rain. We will see. This seems a bit overdone.
The GFS model, on the other hand, is showing lesser totals. But, even it is showing some 0.25″-0.60″ totals. We will take it. Let’s hope this verifies.
Another story this week will be the approach of a cold front on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This front will usher in some cooler air by Wednesday into the weekend.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below normal on Wednesday into at least Friday. Assuming this front does indeed push all the way through the region. If it does then we might even experience some overnight lows dipping into the 40’s on Thursday night. I can say that 50’s are a sure bet. Let’s see how much cool air can push southward with this trough (dip in the jet stream).
The dip in the jet stream might last awhile. Some data indicates a trough over our region into next week. A trough would mean a dip in the jet stream. A dip in the jet stream typically would mean cooler conditions.
I am watching a system around Saturday. Some models show a decent rain event in our region. For now, let’s keep an eye on the weekend forecast, but lean towards dry. If I start to see some better consensus in the guidance then I will add precipitation chances for Saturday.
Maybe a pattern shift towards the second week of October.
We have had more above normal temperature days in September than below normal temperature days. And, as you know…many of us have been dry throughout September. I have recorded less than 0.50″ at the Weather Observatory in Massac County, Illinois. Very dry.
The latest CFS model output for October indicates the dry weather may continue. I am torn on how October will turn out. The last couple of months were easier to forecast.
We are now moving into fall. This typically means a roller-coaster pattern (especially as we move towards late October and November). Normally we also start to experience stronger cold fronts. It can be difficult to break a dry pattern. Some say that drought feeds drought. And, to some extent that can be true. But, if you want to see a pattern shift then typically you would look at October for that shift.
For now, this is the CFS precipitation outlook. Let’s hope it is wrong. I believe we will experience several strong cold fronts during October. And, I do not believe October will be as dry as September. Keep in mind portions of our region did experience some decent rain in early September. But, for the most part…we have been dry.
I think a couple of rain/storm systems around the middle and end of October might help produce a more general rain event for our area.
This image is from weatherbell.com and the brown colors represent drier than normal conditions. The green colors represent above normal precipitation potential.
The temperature outlook for October has been shifting on the CFS. At one time it was showing above normal temperatures. But, the trend has been cooler and cooler.
Here is the map. The white color represents normal temperatures. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.
What is of great interest to me is the following map. This is the 500 mb height map. 18,000′ aloft. The blue colors represent where a trough might be location. The red colors represent where a ridge might occur. I will explain a bit more below.
Check out the deep red over western Canada. A ridge in the west typically means a trough in the east. A trough means the jet stream is dipping southward into our region. A trough would mean colder than normal air. A ridge typically means above normal temperatures.
If this map is correct then I suspect October might turn out colder than normal. More days with northwest flow perhaps. Northwest wind flow generally means cooler air.
On this image, I drew the ridge and the trough. Again, the ridge is where the jet stream goes up and over and area of high pressure. The trough is where the dip in the jet stream occurs. The white arrows represent the jet stream wind flow.
Below is an example of a ridge of high pressure. Then an example of a trough of low pressure. See how the jet stream goes up and over the ridge? Then dips into the trough? The dip is where colder air would be placed. We will see how October goes. Perhaps more below normal temperature days than above normal temperature days.
LUNAR ECLIPSE SUNDAY NIGHT. Clouds could hamper viewing in our region.
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Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances will be scattered on Monday. Better chances on Monday night and Tuesday. This could end up being a widespread rain event. This is a LARGE forecast shift from previous days. Let’s hope it verifies.
Rainfall totals could range from 0.25″-0.50″ from this event on Monday through Tuesday evening. Lower than normal confidence on this particular event.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Monday. Maybe a ONE for Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorm possible on Tuesday.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
No major concerns.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
