We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Are you looking for a full service insurance agency that writes homes, businesses, and vehicles in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Call Gary’s office at 270.442.8234 for rates and plans to protect what matters to you!
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
BURN BANS IN SOME COUNTIES. Check with your local fire departments before burning brush.
Saturday night – Some clouds. A scattered shower or two possible. Mist and sprinkles scattered around the area.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some light rain is possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to re-tweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Sunday – Some clouds. Scattered showers and patchy light rain/drizzle.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there will be some light showers in the region.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Some clouds. Mild for late September.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday – Partly sunny and mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Some clouds. Mild for late September.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – Some clouds. Turning colder as a cold front approaches the region from the north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s central and southern counties and perhaps into the 50’s over northern counties.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and turning cooler as a cold front moves in from the north. Small chance for showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the 70’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50’s. Some counties could dip into the 40’s if the front does indeed push south.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures: Highs in the 70’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Mostly clear early. Perhaps some clouds late. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50’s. Again, some counties could dip into the 40’s (depending on how far south the front pushes)
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the 70’s.
Winds: East winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Reed Electric, Heating & Air in Metropolis, IL offers full electrical, heating, and air conditioning services, as well as automatic transfer generators. Our licensed and insured service technicians serve Southern Illinois and Western KY with 24 hour service. Free estimates available for all new installations!
Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some clouds over the next 24-48 hours
2. Light showers still possible here and there. Many will remain dry.
3. Warmer temperatures early in the week.
4. Another small shot at rain around Tuesday night/Wednesday.
5. Cooler behind a cold front by Wednesday night/Thursday/Friday?
6. Cool/cold blast around October 8-10th?
Clouds moved in from the southeast on Friday night and Saturday. The clouds thickened during the early morning hours of Saturday. Some light rain, sprinkles, and drizzle where reported here and there on Saturday. Rainfall totals were minimal, at best. Many areas remained dry.
Speaking of dry
The clouds will stick around into Sunday and Sunday night. And, perhaps even somewhat on Monday. This is not good news for those wanting to view the lunar eclipse on Sunday night. Clouds could be an issue.
Temperatures were kept down a bit on Saturday by thick cloud cover. Clouds will also keep temperatures down a bit on Sunday. We will see high temperatures mainly in the 70’s. If the sun does break through then temperatures around 80 degrees will be possible on Sunday.
A warming trend will be underway on Monday and Tuesday. Expect above normal temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 80’s. A cold front on Wednesday may mean cooler air by Wednesday into Friday. Models do not agree on this subject. I did lower temperatures a bit more based on new data. Unfortunately, dry conditions will also be the rule. Good for farmers in the fields. Bad for fire departments dealing with field fires. Use caution if you have to burn brush or other materials. Some counties have burn bans in effect.
A disturbance will approach the region on Tuesday into Wednesday (from the north). Some showers and even a rumble of thunder could occur in a few select areas. Once again, many will remain dry with no measurable rainfall. Right now, the models show the best chance for precipitation to be over our northern counties.
Here is the 5 day rainfall map from weatherbell.com This is the GFS model. Not much in our region. If any.
There is a low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico early this week, as well. Personally I think this system will stay to our southeast. But, still monitoring its eventual development.
Here it is on the GFS model. See the low in the Gulf of Mexico? Big rain maker down south. Image is from wright-weather.com
Dry conditions are likely to continue into Friday. Not good news on the rain front.
We may see temperatures fall behind this front (if it pushes all the way through). That would be on Wednesday/Wednesday night. We will see how it goes.
Check out the latest NAM model. This is the forecast temperature map for Wednesday morning. BRRR to our north.
Here are some temperature anomaly maps for the next couple of days (before the cold front arrives). Our normal high temperatures are around 78-80 degrees.
These maps are from weatherbell.com
Let’s start with what happened on Saturday. Notice the blue and green colors? Those colors represent below normal temperatures. Why did we have below normal temperatures? Because of the thick cloud cover.
Now, look what happens by Monday. See the orange and red colors? Those colors represent above normal temperatures.
Moving ahead to Tuesday…we see more above normal anomalies. That means warmer than normal high temperatures.
Long way off, but the GFS (my least favorite model) does show some rain moving in next weekend. I won’t get excited. The track record of rain over the last month has not been great. I will keep an eye on it.
I have been keying in on October 6th through the 12th for weather changes in our region. Colder air possible. And, a bigger rain maker. Long way off. I have been mentioning this for awhile. I am going to start monitoring the models to see if they start to show the potential, as well.
And, here is a morning sunrise photograph from Paducah, Kentucky. Jessica Darnall took this photograph.
And, how about one more photograph from Alaska. They are digging out from some heavy snow!
LUNAR ECLIPSE SUNDAY NIGHT. Clouds could hamper viewing in our region.
The National Weather Service is planning a town hall meeting! The first one will be in Sikeston, Missouri.
Are you interested in becoming a severe weather spotter? We need more spotters.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Small rain chances over the coming days. Where showers do occur they will be light. I am watching for a few showers around Tuesday night and perhaps Wednesday. Can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but the chances appear fairly small.
For the most part, dry conditions will prevail through the upcoming week.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Sunday and Monday.
.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
No major concerns. Some light showers around over the weekend.
No severe weather in the forecast.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
