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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Sunday Night – Becoming cloudy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation will become more likely after 10 pm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 3-6 mph with gusts to 10 mph. Winds late tonight may shift out of the N/NW.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40% (adjustments possible)
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing chances for scattered showers and storms as the night wears on.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset will be at 6:45 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:45 p.m. Waning Crescent
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September 26, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms will end from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. Turning cooler as a cold front moves in from the west.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range. Temperatures may fall during the afternoon hours.
Winds: Winds becoming north and northwest at 5-10 mph with gusts as high as 16 mph along the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain will likely occur along the cold front.
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:43 p.m.
UV index will be 2-4. Low
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Monday Night – Clearing. Much cooler.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-54 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation will have likely ended.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 27, 2016
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. Quite a bit of sun. Much cooler. Fall like.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 8-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:42 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 3:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:05 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Fallish weather.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 28, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph becoming northwest and north.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:40 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 4:29 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:39 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 29, 2016
Thursday: Increasing clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Monitor updates..
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:39 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:11 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Thursday Night – Some clouds. Cool.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 30, 2016
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Monitor updates. I am watching a system coming in from the east.
What impact is expected? Monitor updates.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-82 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:37 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:43 p.m. New Moon.
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Friday Night – Clearing. Cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Say goodbye to the hot and humid days.
- Cold front is approaching from the west and will sweep through the area over the next 24 hours.
- Scattered showers/storms along the front.
- Below normal temperatures for the week ahead.
I promised you cooler weather next week and cooler weather is what you shall receive!
A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday night into Monday afternoon. The front will be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.50″. Some areas will likely receive no measurable rainfall. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavier amounts. PWAT values, with this particular system, are not all that impressive. There is a bit of moisture to work with, but nothing like recent weeks.
Here is the future-cast radar for Monday morning into the afternoon hours. The rain should arrive as early as tonight over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. It will spread east and southeast through the day. Keep in mind, a few showers/storms are possible as early as Sunday afternoon and evening over our far northwestern counties.
Here is the 7 am Monday morning future-cast radar from the NAM guidance. Image is from weatherbell.com
Here is the 10 am image
Here is the 1 pm image
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
The front will also deliver much cooler temperatures. Temperatures on Monday afternoon might actually be falling. By Tuesday morning we will be well down into the 50’s! Highs on Tuesday will not make it out of the 70’s. Lows by Wednesday morning might dip into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s.
This air mass will feel like fall. Finally! I don’t know how many people have asked me when fall weather would arrive. Well, here you go!
Here is the GFS high and low temperature forecast for the coming week. Click to enlarge.
Here is the temperature departure map for Monday and Tuesday. You can see the cooler air approaching on Monday.
and Tuesday
We should remain dry from Tuesday into at least Saturday.
I am also monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development in the long range. Perhaps the first week of October. Again, low confidence on the tropics. Confidence is rarely high when it comes to forecasting tropical development in the long range. Stay tuned.
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How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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Saturday night through Sunday should remain dry. There is a small (less than twenty percent chance) for a shower or storm on Sunday.
Rain chances will increase Sunday night or Monday. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the region. It is possible that some areas don’t receive measurable rainfall. Not sure if it will be a solid line of precipitation. Keep that in mind.
This is the current rainfall forecast (most of this falls on Sunday night into Monday night). We should see dry weather into at least Saturday night and probably Sunday, as well.
This map may change with time. That will depend on the speed of the cold front.
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Monday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Tuesday morning lows
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Tuesday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night into Monday: A few thunderstorms possible. Not anticipating severe weather.
Monday night through Sunday: No severe weather anticipated!
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No major changes in this update.
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No major concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
