September 26, 2024: Here comes the rain.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible today into at least Saturday night. I will monitor Sunday and Monday, as well.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Areas that received heavy rainfall over the past week could receive additional heavy rainfall later this week into the weekend. This could cause some ditches, fields, and roadways to flood. Sharp rises on streams. Some flooding is possible.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? POSSIBLE. Winds could be quite gusty with the remnants of Helene. I will need to keep the wind forecast updated. For now, I have wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range. Right underneath the low, winds will be much lighter. Keep that in mind.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.
Friday: 2. Very low risk.
Friday night: 2. Very low risk.
Saturday: 2. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

A chance of showers and thunderstorms will spread west across the region this afternoon. Otherwise, deep mixing is expected today, along with relative humidity ranging from 40-50% and northeast winds. The remnants of Hurricane Helene will bring widespread heavy rain to the entire region from tonight through Saturday. Scattered showers will be possible Sunday and then the forecast dries out for next week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Outlook Video

Update On Our Rain Chances. Longer update.

National Weather Service Briefing

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Mainly during the afternoon and evening. Rain will arrive from the east and move west.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Increasing chances during the afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Gusty winds away from the center of low pressure.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 15 to 35 mph. Higher gusts are possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:44 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Gusty wind away from the center of low pressure.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 10 to 35 mph. Higher gusts are possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:42 AM
Moonset: 4:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 10 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 6:42 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 5:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and spread east to west.
2. Widespread rain tonight into Saturday.
3. Cooler temperatures.
4. Gusty winds are possible with this event. Winds will be light immediately underneath the low. Higher winds around it.
5. Rain chances taper Saturday night into Monday.
6. Widespread one to three inches of rain over the next four days. Locally much higher totals are possible.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning,

Helene continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico and will move ashore later today/tonight. It will then move north and then turn northwest into our region.

It will have weakened significantly by the time it arrives here.

The D on that map represents a tropical depression.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over our eastern counties this afternoon. Those showers and storms will then move west northward.

Radar will look a bit odd as normally we expect rain to move west to east. With a tropical system and an upper level low, precipitation spirals around the low pressure center.

Thus, precipitation will be spiralling into our region from the east southeast.

Locally heavy rain is possible tonight into Friday night. Perhaps Saturday, as well.

If you have outdoor plans, then have a solid plan B and plan on rain. Then, hope for the best.

I continue to forecast a widespread one to three inches of rain. NOAA/WPC has higher totals. That is possible, but a safe forecast is one to three inches. Then, bands of higher totals. Perhaps much higher totals in a few locations.

Here are the latest NOAA rainfall forecast maps.

Tropical systems often times do not produce a lot of lightning. This is a hybrid system with an area of low pressure over our region combining with the dying hurricane. Some lightning will be possible.

I did raise wind speeds in yesterday’s update. Mostly in the 15 to 30 mph range. Then, some higher gusts are possible.

Keep in mind, right underneath the low, the winds will be light/calm. The winds will be higher away from the low.

IGNORE the wind speeds on this model graphic. This is the NAM model. I wanted to show you the calm area under the center of low pressure.

NAM typically forecasts higher wind speeds than actually occur.

The National Blend of Models shows the highest risk of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts to be over our northern counties. This is one part of the forecast that will need to be monitored. Adjustments to the wind forecast are possible. If confidence increases that high winds will develop, then a wind advisory may need to be issued.

Rain chances will linger into Saturday. Spiraling around the center of low pressure. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, then monitor updates. It is possible there will be some dry time. There will, however, be rain on radar.

Rain tapers off Saturday night into Sunday night. The system will begin to push eastward. A bit faster than it appeared 24 hours ago.

A couple of showers could linger into Monday.

A cold front will move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring cooler air into the region. Overnight lows next week could dip into the 40s. No frost, yet. A bit early for that.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.