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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A slight chance of lightning today. Lightning is possible Wednesday night through the weekend. Tropical systems often times do not produce a lot of lightning. Isolated lightning is possible.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Areas that received heavy rainfall over the past week could receive additional heavy rainfall later this week into the weekend. This could cause some ditches, fields, and roadways to flood. Sharp rises on streams. Some flooding is possible.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. Winds could be quite gusty with the remnants of Helene. I will need to keep the wind forecast updated.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.
. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.
Friday: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible over the southern half of the region this afternoon. Otherwise, deep mixing is expected with light winds and relative humidity dropping below 50%. The remnants of Tropical Storm Helene will begin to impact the region from east to west Thursday. Increasing northeast winds and relative humidity are expected. However, the Mark Twain should still see deep mixing and humidity dropping below 50%. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected Thursday night through Saturday. Scattered showers and storms will continue Sunday and Monday, before drying commences on Tuesday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (TIMING)
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48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers over mainly our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:47 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. A bit higher chance late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 3:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Mainly during the afternoon and evening.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Increasing chances during the afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 15 to 30 mph Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:44 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 10 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:42 AM
Moonset: 4:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 10 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 6:42 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 5:06 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Unsettled weather.
- Isolated shower chances today. Pea size hail and cold air funnels are possible.
- Rain chances increase Thursday PM into the weekend.
- Remnants of the hurricane will impact our region this week and weekend. Weakening system will combine with an upper level low.
- Gusty winds are possible with this event. Monitor updates.
- Cooler temperatures into the weekend.
- Cooler behind a cold front next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
A complex weather forecast into the weekend. There are a lot of moving parts to the forecast.
Rainfall totals over the last few days ranged from almost nothing to over five inches!
Here were the radar indicated totals. Some areas hit the jackpot in rain totals. Double click images to enlarge them.
A few showers are possible again today. Maybe a clap of thunder (isolated). Pea size hail and cold air funnel are possible, as well. Cold air funnels rarely tough down and are typically harmless.
The chance of rain today is a bit higher over our southern counties. That would be along the MO/AR border and KY/TN border.
The next system to impact our region will be an upper level low that will push into the region over the next 24 hours. This system will combine with the remnants of Hurricane Helene.
This will make for a messy forecast. I continue to tweek the rain probabilities. The system has slowed by about 12 hours. I lowered Thursday’s rain probabilities (during the morning and early afternoon).
If you have outdoor plans Thursday into the weekend, then monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
I know there are a lot of football games and other activities.
Peak rain chances will be Thursday night into Saturday afternoon.
Here is the latest National Hurricane Center track forecast for Helene. You can see the D over our region. That means it will be a tropical depression when it arrives.
The system lingers into the weekend.
Confidence in the overall forecast continues to increase.
The biggest question will be rainfall totals. Some data shows a widespread three to six inches of rain. There are questions about those totals. Confidence in the final totals at any given location is low.
A widespread one to three inches is likely. Then, bands of much higher totals will be possible, as well.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook. Totals will vary, as always. This is the general idea for the seven day rainfall forecast.
Double click the image to enlarge. Confidence in one to three inches is high. There is lower confidence in the the four to six inch totals that some data shows.
Let me show you some model data. As you can see, rainfall totals vary on the models. They will struggle with a system like this. You get the general idea.
GFS model
EC model
Canadian model
Another look at the NOAA/WPC map
Showers may linger into Sunday and Monday. With time, the coverage will become less and less.
A strong cold front will sweep through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. As a matter of fact, temperatures may remain in the 60s and low 70s Wednesday. Autumn air.
Check out the EC model temperature forecast through next week. A lot of 70s. Hopefully, we can put the heat waves behind us.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the WRF Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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