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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today (especially over our eastern counties). Lightning is possible Wednesday night into the weekend.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. There is a low level risk of severe weather over our eastern counties today. The concern will be damaging wind gusts (isolated).
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring for the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. I can’t rule out it bringing heavy rain to our region. For now, I am monitoring trends. The concern would be Thursday into the weekend. For now, confidence in the details remain low. Monitor updates.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.
. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Relatively wet and humid conditions are forecast through early next week. The lone exception will be Wednesday when little rain is expected, along with deep mixing and afternoon humidity dropping to near 50%.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Seven Day Forecast Update
Update on the mid to late week rain event.
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48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Tuesday Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. and thunderstorms
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:48 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A chance of a few remaining showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:34 PM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers over mainly our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:47 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. A bit higher chance late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 3:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No , but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Unsettled weather.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms today
- Monitoring an upper level low Wednesday into the weekend. Showers are likely.
- Monitoring the hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Some of its moisture will likely move into our region.
- Cooler temperatures into the weekend.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
I am waiting on the rainfall maps from the past three days. They are processed around mid-morning.
Many areas picked up 0.5 to 1.5″ of rain over the past few days. Some of you, however, received little or no rain. Seems like that is how every event has panned out over the last few months.
A cold front is moving through the region today. This will finally usher in somewhat cooler air.
This front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms could be strong today over our eastern counties. A small risk of damaging wind and small hail. Locally heavy downpours and lightning, as well.
The next system to impact our region will be an upper level low that will push into the region Wednesday and linger into the weekend. This will combine with the hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
There remain some questions about the exact track of the upper level low and the hurricane. Quite a bit of data show both systems impacting our local area with showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible.
Confidence in the forecast is increasing. Additional rain chances will enter the region Wednesday night and continue into the weekend. Peak chances being Thursday into Saturday.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook. Totals will vary, as always. This is the general idea for the seven day rainfall forecast.
Double click the image to enlarge.
These totals are going to depend on the track of the tropical system and the upper level low.
Here is the probability of a tropical depression moving across our area. This is from the EC model ensembles. Notice the northwest curve.
There has been some shift east over the past 24 hours.
Here was yesterday morning’s graphic. Notice that slight shift eastward.
I am seeing that slight shift in the National Hurricane Center’s outlook, as well.
The D over Indiana is where the center of the cone is located on Saturday. The D means tropical depression.
The white cone is where the center is forecast to track. Usually the cone widens as you get move farther out in time.
As you can see, the cone ranges from southeast Illinois to central Ohio.
This was yesterday’s track forecast. Notice the shift eastward. If that eastward trend continues, then it could impact our rain totals.
You can see the different model ideas on the track of the tropical system. Notice how a lot of the tracks curve northwest into our region. This does add some confidence that our upper level low will interact with tropical moisture.
I will continue to monitor the trends in the guidance.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the WRF Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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