Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into Tuesday evening. I am monitoring Wednesday into the weekend for additional lightning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. The Storm Prediction Center has a low level risk of severe weather over parts of the region today and tonight. Again Tuesday. Wind is the primary concern.
I will monitor Thursday into the weekend as an upper level low develops over our region and interacts with a tropical system to our southeast.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring for the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. I can’t rule out it bringing heavy rain to our region. For now, I am monitoring trends. The concern would be Thursday into the weekend. For now, confidence in the details remain low. Monitor updates.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.
5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.
8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.
. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 3. Very low risk.
Monday night: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will keep the Quad State wet through Tuesday, when a cold front will pass and bring a brief end to the rain. An upper-level storm system will then settle over the region Wednesday and lead to daily chances of showers through next weekend. There is even the potential for some tropical moisture to impact the region by the end of the week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:50 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Light and variable wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 10:37 PM
Moonset: 1:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. and thunderstorms
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 73° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 73° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:48 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A chance of a few remaining showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:34 PM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter
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Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers over mainly our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:47 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. A bit higher chance late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Moonrise: :
Moonset: 3:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 76°
Far western Kentucky ~ 74° to 76°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No , but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:38 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Unsettled weather.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms today into Tuesday. Peak chances will be today and tonight.
- Monitoring a possible upper level low Thursday into the weekend.
- Monitoring a possible tropical storm or hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Cooler weather.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
We have several weather systems to monitor.
A cold front is moving through the region today. That front will linger into Tuesday. Some of the rain will be heavy. See the live radar links at the bottom of the page.
Coverage today will be highest over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Coverage tonight will increase farther south and continue into tomorrow.
Future-cast radar shows multiple rounds of showers and storms. First, over the north half of the region. Then, over the central and southern half.
Double click animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Rainfall totals will have a WIDE range. We should be used to that. Some locations will pick up an inch or two of rain and others will receive less than 0.50″.
General rainfall totals between now and Tuesday night will range from 0.50″ t0 1.00″. Thunderstorms will make all the difference in the heavier totals. If your location finds itself under a few storms, then you will have the higher rain totals.
We also have a low level risk of severe weather today into tomorrow. The primary concern will be damaging wind and small hail. The tornado risk is low.
We did have a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings Saturday and Sunday. Storms produced gusty winds in isolated locations. I did not see much in the way of damage reported to the NWS. Radar did show some strong wind gusts in mainly rural areas.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events over the next day or two. If thunder roars, then move indoors.
The next system to impact our region will be an upper level low that will push into the region Wednesday and linger into the weekend. This could combine with a tropical system developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
There remain significant questions about the track of both the upper level low and the tropical system. Quite a bit of data show both systems impacting our local area with showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain, as well.
Confidence in the track of these two systems remains low. Confidence is increasing, however, that at least some rain will impact the region Wednesday into the weekend. Just how much rain is the primary question.
Monitor updates concerning these systems.
The WPC NOAA went all in on rainfall totals this week. Some of this will fall today and tomorrow, but quite a bit of it falls mid to late week. This is HIGHLY dependent on the track of the tropical system. Double click the image to enlarge.
Again, those totals are going to depend on the track of the tropical system and the upper level low. Monitor updates. I am sure that graphic will need updating as confidence in the final track increases.
Here is the probabilities of a tropical depression moving over the area. This is from the EC model ensembles. Notice the northwest curve.
You can see the different model ideas on the track of the tropical system. Notice how a lot of the tracks curve northwest into our region. This does add some confidence that our upper level low will interact with tropical moisture.
Monitor updates over the coming days.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the WRF Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like. Each model may be a little different. The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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