September 2, 2025: A few showers. Tracking two cold fronts.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

September 2nd through September 8th

Current risk: NONE.

Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.

Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. A chance of scattered lightning today and tomorrow. A low chance on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. I will monitor next Monday and Tuesday.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? NO.

8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.

9. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter..

Normal thunderstorms are possible this week along two cold fronts. We do not anticipate severe weather.

Here is the extended concern meter. This takes us through next Monday.

Organized or widespread extreme/severe weather is not anticipated.

Isolated lightning is possible today through Saturday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

This afternoon

Forecast discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days.
Not everyone will receive measurable rainfall. Some locations will pick up 0.10″ to 0.30″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.
Cooler air will filter into the region behind a cold front on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A second cold front will arrive on Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers are possible with that front, as well.
I am watching another weak front next Monday and Tuesday.
Drought conditions will worsen.

Good morning, everyone.

I hope you had a nice holiday weekend. The weather was amazing.

We have a few cold fronts moving towards our region over the coming days.

An upper-level disturbance will bring widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area today. Chances are higher east of the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.

Here are today’s rain probabilities. Lower chances over Missouri and Illinois. Higher chances over Kentucky and Tennessee.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

We expect a lull in precipitation during the day on Wednesday. Then, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will be the highest chance of precipitation for the area. This will occur along the cold front.

Don’t get too excited. We aren’t expecting much in the way of rainfall over the coming days.

Some of you will receive no measurable rainfall. Others will pick up 0.10″ to 0.25″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.

This will not be enough to help the drought. The ground is very dry. Whatever falls will immediately soak into the ground. And, eventually evaporate.

Here is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall outlook for today through Saturday.

As you can see, we aren’t expecting much.

I think it will take some luck to receive more than 0.25″ of rainfall. Thunderstorms will provide the best opportunity for somewhat higher totals.

Double click to enlarge the image.

Another cold front will push through the region on Friday and Saturday. I have 20% to 30% rain chances with that front. It is moisture-starved. I don’t expect much with it.

Another front will move through the region early next week. I have 20% rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures over the next seven days are expected to be mostly below average. It will still be warm on some days.

Average highs for early September are in the mid to upper eighties. Normal lows are in the low to mid sixties.

Here is the latest EC ensembles temperature forecast. I picked Paducah as a central location. The entire region will be similar. Slightly higher far south. Slightly lower north.

I continue to watch a potential warm-up around the 15th to 20th. Perhaps we pop above normal for a few days.

Many counties have burn bans in effect.

If you must burn fields or brush, then check with your county officials. I suspect there will be a lot more burn bans issued over the coming weeks.

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 86 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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