September 2, 2024. Beautiful weather today and tomorrow. Unsettled mid-week. Cooler by the weekend.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible Friday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

9. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday: 5. Medium risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Following the passage of a cold front, sunny skies and dry air are forecast across the Heartland today. RH values will fall as low at 30-40%, with mixing heights reaching 5000 to 7000 ft. Transport winds will be from the NE at 10-15 kts, so conditions for smoke dispersal will be good. Tuesday will see similar conditions, with the exception of increasing cloud cover. Chances for rain will return for the Wednesday through Friday period.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

NO BLOG TUESDAY. I WILL BE OFF FROM WORK. I NEED TO TAKE A FRIEND TO A MEDICAL APPOINTMENT.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:54 AM
Moonset: 7:25 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Becoming mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:53 AM
Moonset: 7:47 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A small chance of a shower over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways (far south)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 8:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:48 AM
Moonset: 8:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 82° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest becoming northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset: 8:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. A beautiful day ahead of us. Cooler. Less humid.
2. Warmer and more humid Wednesday into Friday.
3. A chance of scattered showers and storms mid-week.
4. Strong cold front late week. Nice/cooler weather behind that front.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone. I hope you are having a wonderful holiday weekend.

The weather will be amazing today. Cooler. Less humid. Plenty of sunshine. An A+ day is on tap for the region.

Enjoy.

It will remain less humid through Tuesday.

Dew points and humidity will begin to rise late Tuesday night into Wednesday. That will continue through Friday. It will feel warmer and stickier.

This will be in response to a tropical disturbance moving out of the Gulf of Mexico into the southern United States. It will brush our region with clouds and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

For now, I have capped rain chances at 20% to 30%. Yesterday. I had some periods with 40%. The system has trended slightly southward.

I will continue to monitor it. Either way, a few showers and thunderstorms will dot the weather radars Wednesday into Friday.

Peak chances will be during the heat of the day (afternoon and evening hours).

The primary concern will be lightning.

Rainfall totals won’t be anything to write home about. You can expect 0.00″ to 0.40″. Slow moving storms can always produce much larger totals. Typical for late summer.

Totals may be a bit higher over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. That will depend on just how farth north the tropical disturbance pushes.

Here is the official NOAA rainfall forecast. As you can see, totals will be much higher to our south along the track of that system.

There is a sharp cut-off of totals as you travel northward. We will have to see if they make additional adjustments to this map.

The trend over the last 48 hours has been to push these higher totals farther and farther south.

A strong cold front will push through the region Friday and Friday night. This will spark a few showers and thunderstorms. The bigger impact of it will be to usher in some autumn like air.

Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s by the weekend and early next week. Some locations could even dip into the 40s for overnight lows. A chill in the air? Perhaps.

Check out this map.

These are the low temperatures for Sunday morning. The second map is the temperature anomaly map. How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be. This is an impressive front.

Temperature anomaly map (below).

Friday high temperature forecast

Saturday high temperature forecast

Sunday high temperature forecast

Friday morning low temperature forecast

Sunday morning lows

Monday morning lows

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.