September 2, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

Rain chances Friday night into Sunday will vary GREATLY north to south. See the detailed hand typed forecast for more information.

The % chance of rain is going to vary GREATLY Friday night into Sunday from north to south.

48-hour forecast

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Thursday to Thursday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Friday into Sunday. I am monitoring Wednesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I will keep an eye on Saturday. A couple of intense storms are possible.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Friday night into Sunday. The risk may be higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Friday night into Saturday evening.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

September 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 82° to 85° / South IL 82° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° / West KY 82° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 62° / South IL 56° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 56° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:39 AM
Moonset: 5:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing afternoon clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (low chance)
Timing of the rain: During the PM hours
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 84° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 84° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. More likely late at night vs earlier in the night. The chance of rain will be highest from Bollinger County, Missouri east/northeast into Jackson County, Illinois, and then east towards Evansville, Indiana. Along and north of that line is where the chances will be highest. Lower chances as you move further south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated south becoming numerous north/northwest portion of the region.
Timing of the rain: More likely late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:37 AM
Moonset: 5:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chance will be higher over the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky vs areas further south. This is HIGHLY dependent on the placement of the cold front. If the front drifts further south then rain chances increase further south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 84° / South IL 78° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:19 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous north and isolated far south.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 63° to 66° / South IL 63° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check the radars.
Moonrise: 3:38 AM
Moonset: 6:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher as you travel south vs north. The front will be moving south.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north to numerous far south.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 78° to 82° / South IL 80° to 84° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:44 AM
Moonset: 7:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

September 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 84° to 86° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 86° / South IL 84° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 86° / West KY 84° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:16 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear with patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:51 AM
Moonset: 7:33 PM
The phase of the moon: New

September 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° / SE MO 85° to 90° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 85° to 90° / South IL 85° to 90° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° / West KY 85° to 90° / NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:14 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:59 AM
Moonset: 8:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

This is an average for the region.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

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Today through September 7th: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. A few thunderstorms could be intense Saturday with strong and gusty winds.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. A nice day for the region.
2. Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Friday night into Sunday (WIDE variety of weather for the weekend from north to south).
3. Monitoring a cold front next Wednesday

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

Weather Discussion

A nice day is on tap for the region. Lower temperatures. Lower dew points. All in all and A+ day!

Unfortunately, models continue to trend wetter for the weekend (for some). At one point it appeared that it would be a nice holiday weekend. That has been replaced with showers and thunderstorms. At least a portion of the weekend.

This is a complicated forecast. I would not cancel my weekend plans. I would, however, monitor updates and radars and then plan/adjust accordingly.

This forecast is HIGHLY dependent on the placement of the cold front. If the front is further south then rain chances increase further south.

The biggest issue is the timing of rain at any given spot. For example. rain chances will be high late Friday night into Saturday across the northern half of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois. Rain chances will be low south of there.

Saturday, the shower and thunderstorm chances will be quite high across the northern half of southeast Missouri and much of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. As you travel south, however, the rain chances may decrease considerably. It may end up mostly dry Saturday over the southern quarter/half of the region.

Saturday night into Sunday the cold front pushes further south. That means increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms area-wide.

Sunday, the cold front will be draped across the southern quarter of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. That means rain chances will be higher in those locations Sunday vs areas to the north (which may be dry).

It makes it difficult for a forecaster to tell you how to handle your weekend plans.

I can’t rule out locally heavy rain with thunderstorms.

PWAT values are going to be high with this event. If showers and thunderstorms train over the same areas then someone could pick up one to three inches of rain from this event.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. It tells you how much rain can fall in a fifteen minute period. You can see that numbers are high.

If you have outdoor plans late Friday night into Sunday then monitor updates. Plan on some rain.

Monday is expected to be nice.

Another cold front will approach the region towards the middle of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany it.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.