We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
.
Sunset will be at 6:56 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 8:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:38 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night – Evening clouds will give way to clearing. A couple of evening showers and storms will be possible over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee. Not sure they survive into western Kentucky. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog could lower visibility in a few spots. Lightning and small hail in storms. Brief downpours.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered over southern parts of southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. A strong storm is possible in Butler County, MO.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars over at least southeast Missouri
.
September 19, 2016
Monday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:54 p.m.
UV index will be 8~10. High
Moonrise will be at 9:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog could lower visibility in a few spots.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 20, 2016
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. Just a small chance for a sprinkle.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely isolated to none. Some data shows a couple of showers over our northern counties.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:53 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High
Moonrise will be at 9:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:57 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 21, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:51 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High
Moonrise will be at 10:45 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:04 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Hot week ahead
- Much cooler next week?
A weak disturbance will pass to our south on Sunday evening. A couple of storms could move into southeast Missouri and western Tennessee. Otherwise, dry weather for the region into Wednesday.
A weak front will brush our region on Tuesday. A small chance for a passing sprinkle.
Hot temperatures this week. Upper 80’s to lower 90’s by Tuesday and Wednesday. WELL above normal.
Data continues to show a couple of cold fronts this coming weekend into next week. One of them could be strong. Much cooler temperatures behind the front.
Check out the sixteen day temperature graph from the GFS model. Maybe fall will arrive sooner than later.
Click image to enlarge
You can see the temperature anomaly forecast map is picking up on the front, as well. Red is above normal temperatures. Blue represents below normal temperatures. Notice how we are above normal ahead of the front. Temperatures fall off behind the front.
This first map is for Saturday afternoon.
This next map is for next Sunday. Below normal temperatures behind the front.
Look what happens the last week of the month. Perhaps a stronger cold front? This is in the long long range. Low confidence. The GFS does show a sharp cold snap. Plenty of time to monitor. I know some of you are looking for fall temperatures.
Don’t forget, severe storms can happen during the fall months. We are heading into our fall uptick time frame. Normally that runs from late September into November. Tornadoes are not uncommon in our area during the fall month.
Here is the temperature anomaly map for September 29th. WELL below normal temperatures according to the GFS guidance. Time will tell!
Don’t forget that severe storms are not uncommon during the fall months.
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
.
Sunday night through Monday night should be dry. A couple of showers and storms may make it into southeast Missouri Sunday afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals would be locally heavy if storms do manage to hold together into that area.
.
.
Monday afternoon high temperature
.
.
Tuesday morning lows
.
Tuesday afternoon highs
.
.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night through Friday: No severe weather anticipated.
.
No major changes
.
.
No major concerns. Perhaps some morning patchy fog over the coming days. That would lower visibility.
.
..
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
