We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
.
Friday Night
Sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:19 a.m. Full Moon
Friday Night – Mostly cloudy. A 60% for thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 70%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce gusty winds. Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and have a plan B.
.
September 17, 2016
Updated the forecast to lower rain chances
Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A 30% for showers and storms.
What impact is expected? A few storms with lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce gusty winds. Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4. Most likely low because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Saturday Night – Clearing. Isolated shower chance early. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Perhaps an evening shower or storm. Lightning and wet roadways if that happens. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 18, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:56 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High
Moonrise will be at 8:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:38 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Low confidence on the Sunday night into Monday night forecast.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 19, 2016
Monday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:54 p.m.
UV index will be 8~10. High
Moonrise will be at 9:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 20, 2016
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-86 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated. Some data shows a couple of showers over our northern counties.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:53 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High
Moonrise will be at 9:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:57 a.m. Waning Gibbous
.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Showers and thunderstorms over the coming days
- Locally heavy rain possible
- Rain may continue (at least scattered) into Sunday
- Have a plan B for Friday into Sunday (it won’t rain all the time, but enough to cause problems)
The weekend is upon us. The main concern is going to be showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is a possibility. On Thursday, some locations in southeast Missouri picked up 2-4″ of rain. This did cause some flash flooding. Keep this in mind.
PWAT values will top two inches this weekend. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. Two inches and above is considered high to extreme. Thunderstorms will have plenty of moisture to work with. Thus, locally heavy rain will be possible. If storms train over the same areas then some brief flash flooding can’t be ruled out. Avoid flooded roads.
Unfortunately, showers and thunderstorms are going to be with us right on into Saturday night and perhaps even Sunday. The activity should be weakening by Sunday. A cold front will push through the area during the day on Sunday. This will bring an end to shower and thunderstorm chances. Precipitation will end from north to south.
Temperatures over the coming days will be a little bit cooler. Not much. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80’s. Cloud cover will shave a few degrees off the thermometer. Remember, a few weeks ago we were mostly in the 90’s. We are stair stepping down into fall. Don’t worry, we will get there.
Rainfall totals will vary greatly over the coming days. Pockets of 2″~4″ is certainly a possibility. Widespread 0.30″~0.60″ will occur. Then, bands of heavy totals will thunderstorms train over the same areas. It has been a long summer of wet weather.
I have been spending a lot of time learning how to make weather videos. Trying to get ready for fall severe weather and winter storms. Time is zipping along.
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
.
Rainfall totals will vary greatly. Thunderstorms could produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. Here is a broad-brushed general rainfall outlook for the coming days. Just keep in mind that heavier totals are likely to occur.
.
.
Saturday afternoon high temperature
.
.
Sunday morning lows
.
.
Sunday afternoon highs
.
.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Friday night into Saturday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates. Lightning is the main concern. Heavy rain, as well. Small risk for severe weather. Tropical funnel clouds are also possible. These are brief funnels that rarely touch down.
Sunday: A few storms are again possible. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.
Updated rain chances
.
.
Quite a few storms into the weekend. Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events. Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few spots.
Have a plan B for Friday night into Sunday. At least on and off rain chances will be with us. It won’t rain all the time.
.
..
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
