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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Monday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny and nice. A bit warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Some increase in clouds. Warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Increasing clouds. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the northwest.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Lightning.
Saturday – Cloudy. A 30%-40% chance for some showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be some showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Lightning with a few storms.
Saturday night – Some clouds. A 10%-20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Nice weather on tap for the region (yes, dry)
2. Perhaps some patchy fog during the overnight hours
3. Above normal high temps return around Wednesday-Saturday
4. Late week cold front? Rain? Data is mixed on how it plays out.
5. Fall usually brings an uptick in severe weather
Well, I feel like I am on repeat mode! That is always a good thing when the weather is nice.
I don’t foresee any significant weather problems through Thursday. We may have some patchy fog at times.
Temperatures will slowly warm each day. I suspect by Wednesday that some of our counties will experience above normal temperatures. That means temperatures above the 84 or 85 degree mark. Close to that.
Warmer weather will continue into at least Friday and Saturday.
A weather system will approach from the north on Friday and Saturday. A cold front to be exact. This front will slide slowly into our region. Showers and some thunderstorms can be expected along the front.
Questions, however, remain about the timing of the front. Will it push all the way through our region? Will it stall out over our region? This is still an unknown. Hoping to iron these details out over the next day or two.
Another question is just how much rain will or won’t fall. Today’s data is skimpy on rainfall totals. Not encouraging. We need rain in a bad way. But, that may not be in the charts for awhile. The weekend system looks puny on today’s charts. I will continue to watch it.
Perhaps the best chance for precipitation in our region will center on Saturday. Again, however, confidence is lower than normal on the details.
Severe weather is not anticipated with the front. Wind fields are not overly impressive. I can’t rule out some locally heavy rain if storms do form. This is something I will keep an eye on and update accordingly as we draw nearer to the time frame when precipitation is expected.
Here is the GFS model. This takes you from Friday into Saturday. You can see the heavier precipitation mostly to our north on these maps. The front then sags southward, but the amount of rainfall shown is not very much.
This first map is for Friday around 1 pm. You can see precipitation to our north. The green and blue colors represent rainfall. Images are from weatherbell.com
The next image is for Friday night around 12 am to 1 am (Saturday morning).
This next image is for Saturday morning around 7 am. Some rain in our region.
This next image is for Saturday around 12 pm to 1 pm. Yeesh. Not much rain in the areas that need rain. Not good.
Then finally, this next image is for Saturday night. Not much precipitation on this map.
No real cold air in sight. I am watching the third week of October for colder air potential. Frost? Long way off. Pattern should evolve more rapidly as we push into middle and end of October.
Just a reminder that fall typically brings an uptick in severe weather to our region.
Some stark reminders of our fall tornado threat include: (from the Paducah, KY NWS and the West KY Star)
* September 22-23, 2006; 10 tornadoes struck our region, including an EF4.
* October 18, 2007; 16 tornadoes struck our region including an EF3 tornado in Owensboro. Twenty-two were injured.
* November 6, 2005; An EF3 tornado developed near Smith Grove before killing 25 in the Evansville area.
* November 15, 2005; An EF4 tornado struck the Madisonville area, injuring 27 with the longest track KY tornado (EF3) in decades striking Marshall and adjacent counties.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain is forecast through Thursday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Monday and Tuesday.
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Some storms possible, but severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns on the weather front.
Calm into Wednesday. Can’t rule out patchy fog at times.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
