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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Sunset will be at 7:03 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Night – Patchy fog late. A few evening clouds with an isolated thunderstorm possible (mainly the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee). Increasing clouds late tonight.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog. Isolated lighting and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
September 14, 2016
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cold front approaches from the north and west. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-88 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:02 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high. Will monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated shower possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some patchy fog. Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No, but check radars
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 15, 2016
Thursday: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:00 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some isolated storms
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 16, 2016
Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning. Coverage will likely increase as the day wears on into Friday night.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate to high (depending on clouds)
Moonrise will be at 7:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:19 a.m. Full Moon
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Friday Night – Mostly cloudy. A 60% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and have a plan B.
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September 17, 2016
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4. Most likely low because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-66 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Have a plan B.
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September 18, 2016
Sunday:Some clouds. If the front passes through the region then rain chances will come to an end. This needs to be monitored.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts. This could change.
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:56 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Perhaps moderate. Will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 8:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:38 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Low confidence on the Sunday night into Monday night forecast.
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 19, 2016
Monday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:54 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8. Perhaps moderate. Will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 9:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- A few showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Thursday. Isolated to scattered.
- Good chance for rain on Friday into Saturday.
- Monitoring Saturday night and Sunday for rain chances.
- Watching a system Sunday night and Monday.
Tuesday delivered warm and humid conditions across the region. A big change from the nicer air-mass of recent days. Summer isn’t over, yet.
Here was a dew point map that I made on Tuesday afternoon. Moisture plume all the way back into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico
We have a weak disturbance that will push through the region on Wednesday into Thursday. This disturbance could produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Many areas will remain dry. A few spots will pick up a quick downpour. I capped rain/storm chances at 20%-30% through Thursday. That means there will be rain on radar, but not everyone will receive measureable rain.
A stronger upper level storm system and associated cold front will push into our region on Friday and Saturday. This front will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Coverage this time will be more numerous than the Wednesday and Thursday system. Rainfall totals could be locally heavy where thunderstorms develop. Generally speaking, rainfall totals should range from 0.30″-0.60″. Thunderstorms could, however, produce 1″-2″ inches of rain in a few locations. Same as recent months.
Rain chances may continue into Saturday night.
Rain chances should decrease on Sunday. I believe we will still have showers and storms on radar during both time periods. Perhaps not as great as coverage as Friday and Saturday.
Severe weather is currently not anticipated. Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds. Typical for this time of the year.
The model guidance splits by Sunday night and Monday. EC is showing another system delivering more rain to the region. GFS and GEM guidance show dry conditions Sunday night and Monday. Confidence is low as to the eventual outcome. I will need to update this part of the forecast.
If you have weekend plans then have a solid plan B. At least periods of on/off rain chances will be with us through the weekend. I am sure this will disrupt some activities.
Temperatures will vary over the coming days. Cloud cover will keep some locations in the lower to middle 80’s. Areas that have more sun will pop into the middle and upper 80’s. Dew points will remain high. Thus, it will feel humid.
Here is the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 pm on Thursday. Again, storms can produce locally heavy rain. Click image for a larger view. Image is from weatherbell.com
Here is the rainfall forecast through Sunday at 7 pm. The bulk our rain falls on Friday into Saturday (Saturday night)
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
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Rain chances increase by Wednesday into Thursday. Totals during this time period should generally be less than 0.25″. Locally much higher in thunderstorms, of course.
Rainfall totals on Friday into Sunday could be locally heavy. Generally a 0.30″-0.60″ rain event is anticipated. Thunderstorms, however, could drop 1-2″ of rain. Here is the WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook.
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon high temperature
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Thursday morning lows
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Thursday afternoon highs
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday into Thursday night: No severe weather anticipated. A few storms possible. Lightning is the main concern.
Friday into Saturday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates. Lightning is the main concern.
Sunday: Perhaps a few remaining storms on Sunday. Low confidence. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated temperatures and rain chances.
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A few storms into the weekend. Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events.
Have a plan B for Friday-Sunday. At least on and off rain chances will be with us. It won’t rain all the time.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
