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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s north and east to lower 50’s elsewhere
Winds: Southeast and variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Monday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny and nice. A bit warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Some increase in clouds. Warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Nice weather on tap for the region (yes, dry)
2. Perhaps some patchy fog during the overnight hours
3. Above normal high temps return around Wednesday-Saturday
4. Late week cold front? Rain? Data is mixed on how it plays out.
5. Fall usually brings an uptick in severe weather
Well, the nice weather has arrived. Many locations dipped into the middle to upper 40’s on Sunday morning. A nice chill in the air. This was some of the coldest air since last May. You fall fans must be giddy.
We will slowly but surely start to watch temperatures moderate as we move into the new work week. As a matter of fact, temperatures should return above normal for high temperatures by Wednesday through Saturday. The weekend temperatures will depend on cloud cover and perhaps precipitation chances. If we have clouds and precip then temperatures won’t be as warm, of course.
It will be calm most of this week. Unfortunately, many of you still need rain. That is not in the cards through at least Thursday.
Here is the percent of normal rainfall since September 1st. Not looking good for parts of our region.
Some of us have only recorded 5-10% of normal rainfall since the beginning of September. Dry is the word. For some, at least. Parts of Missouri and Illinois have done well.
I am still watching that system I have been talking about for late in the week. Perhaps Friday-Saturday? We shall see.
A cold front is forecast to move in from the north. It may stall out over the region. Some showers and storms will be possible with the front. I am not overly confident, especially after the last two events, on just how widespread the rainfall will or won’t be.
Let’s keep an eye on it.
Check out the GFS on this next system. It stalls the front over our region. Multiple days with at least some chance for showers and storms. Keep in mind this is the GFS and it isn’t always the best in the long range. Although, sometimes it does okay. Again, let’s keep an eye on trends.
The EC model does not show this happening. It shows the front pushing through the area and moving to our south. It does not show days of rain chances. So, the models do not agree on this. That means lower than normal confidence.
The ensembles also aren’t totally on-board with the GFS idea. That leads me to believe the GFS may be too bullish on stalling the front out. Still some time to go before we iron out the details.
These images are from tropicaltidbits.com
This first image is for 7 am on Friday morning. The green represents some rain and storms.
This next image is for Friday evening at 7 pm.
This next image is for 7 am on Saturday morning
This next image is for 7 am Sunday morning. If the GFS is right then we will have several days with rain chances. We sure do need it.
Here is the GFS temperature anomaly chart for the upcoming 7-14 days. The zero line means normal temperatures. Anything above that line is above normal temperatures. Below the line is below normal temperatures. Obviously at the beginning of the chart we start out well below normal!
But, look at the middle of the week onward. Lot of above normal days still in the cards for September. Graphic is from weatherbell.com Click for a larger view.
Dates are at the bottom of the image. The left side scale is above, normal, or below normal numbers. Zero means a normal temperature day.
Just a reminder that fall typically brings an uptick in severe weather to our region.
Some stark reminders of our fall tornado threat include: (from the Paducah, KY NWS and the West KY Star)
* September 22-23, 2006; 10 tornadoes struck our region, including an EF4.
* October 18, 2007; 16 tornadoes struck our region including an EF3 tornado in Owensboro. Twenty-two were injured.
* November 6, 2005; An EF3 tornado developed near Smith Grove before killing 25 in the Evansville area.
* November 15, 2005; An EF4 tornado struck the Madisonville area, injuring 27 with the longest track KY tornado (EF3) in decades striking Marshall and adjacent counties.
A great photograph near Owensboro, Kentucky on Sunday. This photograph was taken by Shellie Sweat Midgette. Thank you Shellie for a great photograph of a distant rain shaft. Nice country setting. Don’t forget you can always Tweet me your photographs. My Twitter handle is beaudodson
And for you winter fans. I thought this was cute. Noticed someone on Facebook posted these cupcakes. Snowman cupcakes!!! I like that idea.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain is forecast through Monday night.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Monday and Tuesday.
.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns on the weather front.
Calm into Wednesday. Can’t rule out patchy fog at times.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
