September 13, 2024: On and off rain chances into the weekend. Have a plan B if you have outdoor plans.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible through at least Sunday. Chances could linger into early next week.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. The overall risk of damaging wind and tornadoes appears small. Perhaps not zero. I will monitor it and send out app messages if necessary.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Pockets of locally heavy rain could briefly cause ditches to fill with water and water over some roadways. Isolated issues.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? LOW CHANCE. Generally winds will be in the 10 to 25 mph range. Some higher gusts possible.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

10. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

11. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Friday: 3. Low risk.
Friday night: 3. Low risk.
Saturday: 3. Low risk.
Saturday night: 3. Low risk.
Sunday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Remnants of tropical system Francine will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms to our region through Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday will be a quarter to three quarters of an inch, with high amounts along the southern border of west Kentucky. Chances of showers and a few storms will continue Saturday night through Monday. East to southeast winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph this morning, decreasing through the remainder of the day.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

—> Someone asked me where all the rain went. The forecast was and has been (for days) for a general one to three inches of rain over a four day period of time. That totals would vary greatly. Locally higher totals are possible. That would fall between Thursday and Sunday. We still have three more days of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Keep that in mind. It does not fall all at once.

NWS Paducah, Kentucky graphic. Double click images to enlarge them.

From the Memphis, TN NWS

They did issue a flood watch for parts of northwest Tennessee

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Don’t forget, videos are located on the app, as well.

Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 75°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered west. A bit more numerous east northeast.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 4:39 PM
Moonset: 12:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 78°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 78°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 78°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:04 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 5:21 PM
Moonset: 2:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 85°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 85°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 82° to 85°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
.

Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:57 PM
Moonset: 3:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 85°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:00 PM
.

Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:28 PM
Moonset: 4:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 6:59 PM
.

Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:57 PM
Moonset: 5:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:24 PM
Moonset: 7:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 6:56 PM
.

Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:53 PM
Moonset: 8:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms today into the weekend.
2. Activity will become increasingly scattered Sunday and Monday.
3. A soaking rain for many locations. The ground should soak it up quickly since we are in severe drought.
4. Warmer conditions next week. Above normal temperatures return.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone.

As mentioned above, I did have a couple of people ask me if we missed the rain. No. We have not missed the rain.

The forecast was for a general one to three inches of rain over a four day period of time. That is from Thursday through Sunday night.

If by Sunday night, you have not received an inch of rain or more, then you ended up missing out or ended up on the lower end of the rainfall forecast.

Let’s see how the next three days go.

So far, the forecast has been perfect and what we expected.

It will be unsettled for several more days.

The remnants of Francine continue to spin over northeast Arkansas. They are nearly stationary. Perhaps a slow drift east southeast. Not much movement.

I expect numerous showers and some thunderstorms to dot the radar today into Sunday night. Peak coverage will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours. That coincides with peak heating of the day, as well. That is when there will be a bit more energy in the atmosphere for activity.

There will be some tropical downpours. If showers and storms slowly train over the same areas, then you can expect heavy downpours.

Generally, we are expecting another 0.5″ to 2.0″ of rain area-wide.

Here is the latest WPC outlook

There are some questions about northern southeast Missouri and northern southern Illinois. Where totals could be less.

I expect some isolated areas where three or more inches will fall, as well. That won’t be the norm, but the exception.

That could lead to ditches filling with water and some flooded roadways. Briefly, at least.

There is a flood watch for portions of northwest Tennessee. That was issued by the Memphis, Tennessee NWS. See graphic at the top of the page.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to wane Sunday and Sunday night. By Monday, the remnants will have weakened to the point where only low-end rain chances will remain in our local area.

A warming trend develops mid week next week and that takes us into next weekend.

You can see that on the EC model. At one time it was showing numerous 90s, but the model has backed off of that. Now, it is more mid to upper 80s. You can also see a potential front at the end of its run with somewhat lower temperatures. Nothing extreme.

Dates are at the bottom of the graphic. You can see that it will be warmer and more humid by next Tuesday and Wednesday. With peak temperatures next Thursday through Saturday.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
..

_______________________________________

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.