September 13, 2019: Remember, your www.weathertalk.com password is NOT the same as the blog. Email me if you need help. beaudodson@usawx.com

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Friday: There is a weak front. Isolated lightning. Triple digit heat index values.
Saturday: An isolated thunderstorm is possible near the KY/TN border. Lightning would be the concern.
Sunday: No.
Monday: No.
Tuesday: Isolated lightning.
Wednesday: Isolated lightning.

Friday through Sunday

Is lightning in the forecast? Possible Isolated lightning on Friday. Isolated near the KY/TN border on Saturday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Yes. On Friday.
Is Frost in the forecast? No.
Is snow or ice in the forecast? No.

Monday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Possible: Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated lightning.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Monitor. It appears we will remain warm into next week. Some question on heat index values.
Is Frost in the forecast? No.
Is snow or ice in the forecast? No.

The big story is the dry weather and heat.

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Click here

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any significant changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No significant changes.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

Rain chances next week are questionable, at best.

If there are changes to the forecast it will be to the percent chance of rain. For now, I have low-end chances.

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** The new app is finished. Make sure you have the new one. If not, go to WeatherTalk in the app store. Download the new app. Notice the icon is no longer orange. It is a grey/dark color **
September 13, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Hot and muggy. Heat index above 100 degrees. Partly sunny with a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold front will approach the region. Most areas will remain dry.
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 85° (north) to 92° (south) South IL 85° (north) to 92° (south) Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 90 to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 100° (cooler north vs south)
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways. Widely scattered lightning. Most of the area will remain dry.
What action is required: Lightning is possible. When thunder roars move indoors.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. An isolated evening thunderstorm. Most of the area will remain dry.
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog in the valleys and near waterways. Lower visibility in those areas. An isolated lightning risk early.
What action is required: Isolated lightning is possible before 9 PM. When thunder roars move indoors. Reduced vehicle speed in areas with lower visibility because of fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but checks radars early in the night.
Sunset: 7:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

September 14, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms near the Kentucky and Tennessee state line and perhaps the Missouri Bootheel. Most areas will remain dry.
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 85° to 88° South IL 85° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 85° to 88° NW TN 86 to 90°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated lightning near the Kentucky/Tennessee state line. Perhaps the Bootheel.
What action is required: If you have outdoor activities then monitor radar over our southern counties. If lightning develops then move indoors. Remember, lightning can strike 30 minutes before and after the rain has ended.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog in the valleys and near waterways. Lower visibility in those areas.
What action is required: Slower travel in areas with dense fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Full
Moonset: 4:57 AM

September 15, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 94° NW TN 90 to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: Use care in the heat.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 68° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some patchy fog in the valleys and near waterways. Lower visibility in those areas.
What action is required: Reduce vehicle speed where fog develops.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:03 PM
Moonrise: 8:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:46 AM

Monday: High confidence. Partly sunny. Highs in the 90 to 95-degree range. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South wind at 5 mph.

Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A 20% chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 88 to 94-degree range. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A 20% chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the 88 to 94-degree range. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South wind at 5 to 10 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

Click the image to enlarge it.

School Bus Stop Forecast

And the afternoon bus stop forecast
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Click the graphic to view a larger size.

Weekend Camping Forecast

Click the graphic to view a larger size.

Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Friday through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday and then next week.

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Severe Weather Risk Graphic (this is not for regular summer storms. This graphic is for severe thunderstorms)

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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Hot and humid.
A weak cold front arrives today. A few showers/storms are possible along it. Most will remain dry

.Current conditions.

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Weather
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Advice:

It will be hot this week. Outdoor sports activities may be impacted by the hot and humid weather. Use caution.

Isolated lightning risk Friday and then again next week.

Weather Forecast Analysis.

Good day, everyone. I made it safely back from my trip to Huntsville, Alabama. I had a great time at our annual weather meeting. Meteorologists from around the nation come together to share ideas and fellowship.

Our weather is stuck in a hot and humid pattern. This is unusual for September. It is not unusual for there to be a few hot days in September. What is unusual is to have hot weather for an extended period of time.

There will be several more days of hot and humid weather.

A weak cold front will pass through the region today. That front could produce enough lift for a few showers and thunderstorms. I believe the majority of the region will remain dry with little or no rainfall. A few spots might be lucky enough to find themselves under a shower.

It will be hot today over the southern three quarters of the region. The front may help keep temperatures in the upper 80s over our northern counties.

The front will dissipate over our region today and tonight. That is how weak it is.

I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm on Saturday near the Missouri and Arkansas state line and near the Kentucky and Tennessee state line. Again, most areas will remain dry.

The heat will continue into Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Likely beyond that period, as well.

I know some of you need a soaking rain. For now, that is not in the cards.

I have been watching the potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Over the last 24 hours the storm track has shifted more to the east.

Our best hope of rain would be from a dying tropical system. For now, that appears unlikely. There is still some room for adjustments in the tropical feature but odds favor east.

I will continue to monitor it.

Here is the latest NHC track forecast.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.

This is the NAM 3K model.

Click the animation to enlarge.

And the Hrrr model guidance.

These maps below update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

*****

VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long-range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I hire BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

The long-range video does cover our region.

There may be some differences in the videos vs my forecast thoughts. Keep that in mind.

Ohio Valley video
<d<span data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;" class="mce_SELRES_start"></span>iv>.

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Long Range Video

The Missouri Valley

…

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Key Points from the BAMwx team:

Following today’s cold front warmth will rebuild Sunday and early next week with well above normal temperatures developing from the North-Central US into the Deep South. Days 2 – 7 will likely average 8-12F above normal for the majority of the Ag Belt.
Continued dry conditions in the Ohio Valley combined with hot weather will quickly dry out soils. High temperatures will likely also continue to overachieve with the dry soils heating up faster.
Appearing more likely that tropical activity will go out to sea a pull a trough with it. This helps pull down some cooler air in the far NE US, and also helps keeps the Ohio/TN Valleys and Deep South very dry the next 7 days.
MJO propagation through warm phases and a tanking AAM are responsible for the robust warmth forecasted the next two weeks. The slow progression will make it difficult to break down the pattern with warmth for Central and Eastern US.
Data beyond day 8/9 is highly variable with major differences in the handling of our Sep. 21 – 24 front and the Pacific pattern. High pressure in East Asia (+MT) should help aid in a +PNA signal, so we leaned slightly towards the GEFS in week 2.
Overall pattern moving forward will highly depend on the MJO. The longer it stays in 8, the longer we stay warm.
Updated Week’s ¾ Outlook!

Click to enlarge these two graphics.

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers September 13th through September 20th

.The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers September 20th through September 26th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.20″
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This outlook covers September 27th through October 10th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Fall Outlook

September, October, and November Temperature outlook

September

October

November

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 712

Tonight’s show was recorded from the site of NWA 2019 and features guests such as the University of Alabama’s Dr. Laura Myers – a specialist in behavioral science – as well as Kevin Laws. Kevin is the meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. Also dropping in is the man running the Research Operations Nexus (RON). Greg Stumpf, welcome! Other guests include meteorologist and UAH alum Elise Shultz, meteorologist Bruce Thomas, NWA Foundation President Alan Gerard and NWS meteorologist Pat Spoden.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: