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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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September 12, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Pleasant. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-62 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 0-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 13, 2016
Tuesday: Morning patchy fog. Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Light and variable/east/southeast winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:03 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Night – Increasing clouds late. Small chance for a shower over our northwest counties (closer to Farmington, Missouri)
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 14, 2016
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cold front approaches from the north and west. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-88 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:02 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high. Will monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some patchy fog. Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 15, 2016
Thursday: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:00 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some isolated storms
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 16, 2016
Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate to high (depending on clouds)
Moonrise will be at 7:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:19 a.m. Full Moon
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A 60% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and have a plan B.
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September 17, 2016
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Have a plan B.
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September 18, 2016
Sunday:Some clouds. If the front passes through the region then rain chances will come to an end. This needs to be monitored.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts. This could change.
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:56 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9.
Moonrise will be at 8:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:38 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Decreasing clouds and cooler. Less humid. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Tuesday will be nice
- Increasing chances for a few showers by Wednesday
- Wet weekend?
Another beautiful day across our region. Tuesday won’t disappoint, either. We will be a little bit warmer on Tuesday and dew points will also start to creep back into the 60’s.
Check out this photo from Jonathan Creek in western Kentucky. Patty Penrod took this photo on Monday morning.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
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Rain chances increase by Wednesday into Thursday.
Rainfall totals this week into the weekend could top one inch in some locations. Here is the WPC broad-brushed rainfall outlook.
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon high temperature
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Wednesday morning lows
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Wednesday afternoon highs
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night – Friday: No severe weather anticipated. A few storms possible Wednesday into Thursday.
Friday into Saturday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.
Sunday: If the front departs on Saturday night then storm chances will come to an end.
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I have updated the rain chances for all locations.
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No major concerns.
Perhaps some patchy fog during the late night hours and early morning hours.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
