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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Friday night – Some evening clouds. A few showers still possible during the evening. Clearing through the night. Much cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe some showers around early in the evening over our southeastern counties.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% for an evening shower
What impact is expected? Nothing major
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Saturday – We may start Saturday off with some sun. Then clouds are forecast to develop. Windy at times. A chance for a few light showers. Cool temperatures. Low humidity.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 2o mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe a couple of light showers in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% chance. Especially the eastern half of the region. Including parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? No real problems.
Saturday night – Nice. Fall like. Mostly clear. Chilly camping weather or great weather to sleep with the windows open. Could be some patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s. Possible cooler in some rural areas and favored cool spots.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 early in the evening. Then becoming light after midnight
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Some fair weather cumulus clouds possible. Beautiful. Low humidity levels.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph becoming variable towards evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s north and east to lower 50’s elsewhere
Winds: Southeast and variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 70’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Maybe another shot at rain towards the middle and end of next week.
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Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A rather fallish weekend on tap for the region
2. A few scattered showers on Saturday
3. Sunday is forecast to be quite nice, but cool
4. Monday into Tuesday should be dry
5. We need more rain for parts of the area
Another disappointing rain event for the region. The systems just are not holding together all that well when they push into Illinois and Kentucky. This one produced scattered 0.10″-0.50″ amounts. But, it was not widespread and not nearly enough for some.
A fairly calm weather pattern will settle into the region over the coming days. We will have to deal with some clouds on Saturday and perhaps some light showers or sprinkles. This is especially true over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The system is more eastern based than western based. That means smaller chances for southeast Missouri.
Let’s check real quick on how my monthly outlook is performing. If you remember my forecast was for drier than normal and warmer than normal. We would have more days with above normal temperatures than below normal temperatures. Everything in orange has been above normal. These are the daily stats from the Paducah, Kentucky NWS
Now back to Saturday’s outlook!
The clouds and gusty winds will make it feel like fall on Saturday. Expect northerly winds at 5-15 mph with gusts over 20 mph at times. Temperatures may not get out of the 60’s.
Check out the 850 mb winds (5000 feet aloft) for Saturday. They are coming out of the north. Cool air moving into the region. If you can see the tiny arrows they are coming out of the north and moving into our region. When we see this on the 850 mb map it typically means cold air advection. Or, cool air moving in.
Sunday we should see the sun again. And, it will feel cool outside. But, perhaps not as cool as Saturday.
Check out the temperature maps
Saturday morning lows
Saturday highs
Sunday morning lows
Sunday highs
Let’s look at dew points and how much of a dramatic change will occur over the coming days. This first map from wright-weather.com shows dew points in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s on Friday. That is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. But, look at the second image. Dew points into the upper 30’s and 40’s by Saturday night and Sunday. When you have dew points that low and you have clear sky conditions it usually means temperatures will drop rapidly at night.
and now compare the above map to Saturday. Cold front sweeps the moisture southward all the way to the Gulf of Mexico! Impressive.
Remember, these are dew points not temperature readings. Dew point is one way meteorologists measure moisture in the atmosphere.
Check out this trough. A trough is a dip in the jet stream. A ridge is when the jet stream nudges northward. A trough usually means it is diving southward. A trough is associated with cloud weather, rain, and cooler air. Typically.
That is one crazy dip! Strong trough for this time of the year.
I found this example of a ridge and trough online
And, for good measure. What is a trough and a ridge? I am glad you asked. Click here for more information
We will start to see winds become more southerly by early next week. This means a warming trend, as well. We should be back in the 80’s by Tuesday into Thursday.
I am watching a cold front for late next week. The models keep pushing it further back. At one time it appeared we could have rain on Wednesday. Some of the data is pointing more towards Thursday and Friday. Still plenty of time to monitor.
We need rain. Let’s look at the precipitation departure map. This was updated through September 10th. Kentucky and Indiana are dry.
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Well, some of you picked up rain on Friday. But other areas remained mostly dry. We just can’t win for some of us. We need rain. I am afraid there isn’t any real good news on the rain front for Saturday through Tuesday.
Some light showers or sprinkles on Saturday could produce 0.05″-0.10″ of precipitation. Not expecting heavy rain. But, a few spots could pick up a shower.
Dry conditions Sunday into at least Tuesday and maybe Wednesday. I am watching for another cold front towards the middle/end of next week. Data continues to slow this front down.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Saturday and Sunday.
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns on the weather front. Light rain possible (very scattered) on Saturday.
Calm Saturday into Monday. Can’t rule out patchy fog at times.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
