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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Thursday night – A few evening storms over southeast Missouri. A chance for some showers moving in from the northwest after 4 am. Rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars over southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early over southeast Missouri and then increasing to 40%-60% by Friday morning.
What impact is expected? Lightning
Friday – Cloudy with a chance for some showers and rain as a second cold front sweeps through the region. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. Precipitation tapering off during the afternoon hours (from west to east)
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Rain chances will increase quite a bit on Friday.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% chance
What impact is expected? Some rain and maybe a rumble of thunder. Not expecting severe weather.
Friday night – Some evening clouds. A shower over our far southeastern counties still possible. Clearing through the night. Much cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph perhaps some gusts to 15 mph at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe some showers around early in the evening over our southeastern counties.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% for an evening shower
What impact is expected? Nothing major
Saturday – Some clouds. Windy at times. A chance for a few light showers. Cool temperatures. Low humidity.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Perhaps a few middle 70’s far south.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 2o mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but maybe a couple of light showers in the area.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance
What impact is expected? No real problems.
Saturday night – Nice. Fall like. Mostly clear. Chilly camping weather or great weather to sleep with the windows open.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s. Possible cooler in some rural areas and favored cool spots.
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Some fair weather cumulus clouds possible. Beautiful. Low humidity levels.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph becoming variable towards evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s north to lower 50’s elsewhere
Winds: Southeast and variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 70’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Great weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Maybe another shot at rain towards the middle and end of next week.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Strong cold front arrives on Friday
2. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday
3. Cooler over the weekend into early next week
4. Watching another system towards the middle of next week. Low confidence that far out.
Our cooler air is slowly but surely filtering into the region. A cold front passed through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This was the first of two cold fronts. It produced quite a bit of rain over parts of the region, but not the entire region. Once again parts of southeast Illinois and Kentucky missed out on the big totals.
Some thunderstorms formed on Thursday afternoon over southeast Missouri. Some of the heavier storms even produced some small hail. More coverage than expected, I might add. Figured there would be some showers in the region, but not to that extent.
A second cold front will approach our region on Thursday night and Friday. This front will once again deliver a chance for showers and perhaps even some rumbles of thunder.
Models are painting a fairly robust rain chance for late Thursday night and Friday. Probabilities for rain should increase into the 60%-70% range over the region. I am hoping many areas pick up another 0.25″-0.50″. Some models show even more than this. But, like the last few systems…I don’t want to get too excited about some of the model output. If we pick up more then great. Some of us need rain.
Most of the rain should occur Friday morning into the early afternoon. Rain is then forecast to end from west to east late in the day.
Finally, by Friday night the rain showers will exit off to the southeast. Some linger showers possible over the Pennyrile of western Kentucky. Other areas should dry out.
It will be a cool evening for the Friday night football games. Keep that in mind.
Saturday will be a bit of a blustery day with gusty winds behind the front. Clouds will linger. Perhaps even low clouds. And, it appears some light showers are possible over the eastern half of the region. That would include parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Saturday should feel like fall outside. Especially with the clouds and wind. A jacket day!
Just look at this GFS model plot from weatherbell.com The zero line is the “normal temperature” line. See how FAR below that number we are this weekend? That is quite unusual to see temperatures this far below normal.
On a graphic that would look like this. Those purple shades are -18 to -22 degrees below normal. Wow. Now, that may be a little bit overdone. We will see where we top out on Saturday. But no matter how you slice it…cooler than normal for the coming days.
Normal highs for this time of the year are around 84 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 60 degrees.
Temperatures will only slowly rise as we push into Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures will continue right on into Tuesday.
We should experience some of the coolest temperatures of the season thus far. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 60’s to middle 70’s Over night lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. Cool mornings, no doubt.
Some data even paints some middle 40’s on Saturday night. Can’t rule it out. Especially in rural and cool favored areas.
I am watching another storm system towards the middle of the week. Our next chance of rain arrives at that time. Low confidence as it is in the long range part of the outlook. Plenty of time to monitor.
We need rain. Let’s look at the percentage of normal precipitation for this month, so far.
This does include Tuesday night’s rain event. Notice the above normal % numbers of parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois? That was a band of 1-3″+ of rain. Some places picked up nearly 5″ of rain on Tuesday night. Notice the red over our eastern counties. Dry.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain is forecast to increase from the northwest on Thursday night and slide southeast into our region as the night wears on and into Friday morning.
Rainfall totals (crossing fingers here) should range from 0.25″-0.50″. Some models paint a bit more than this. We have had a hard time picking up decent rain over southeast Illinois and Kentucky over the last few weeks. Let’s see how it goes.
Here is the official NOAA rainfall forecast. If you remember yesterday they had us in a bit higher numbers. They reduced that bit on this update. It is in the range I am thinking.
No promises that everyone picks up these amounts. Again, the last few weeks have done produced a lot of rain. Let’s hope this one grabs areas that missed out on the Tuesday night and Wednesday system.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE on Friday.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible on Friday.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Some rain showers on Friday. Some rumbles of thunder also possible. No severe weather anticipated.
Calm Saturday into Monday. Can’t rule out patchy fog at times.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
